Tropical Weather Discussion

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National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center Miami Florida
12:05 Coordinated Universal Time Sun May 5 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for

  • North America
  • Central America Gulf of Mexico
  • Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America
  • Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31 North.
  • The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  • Based on 06:00 Coordinated Universal Time surface analysis and satellite imagery through 09:00 Coordinated Universal Time.

MONSOON TROUGH/Inter Tropical Conversion Zone

  • The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09 North 13 West and continues southwestward to 06 North 19 West.
  • The Inter Tropical Conversion Zone extends from 06 North 19 West to 02 North 35 West and to 03 North 51 West.
  • Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 06 North and between 22 West and 46 West.


  • Convection in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico associated an upper level trough has dissipated early this morning, but additional thunderstorms may impact Texas coastal waters today.
  • Moderate to fresh East winds dominate most of the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 feet.
  • However, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail north of a line from the Florida Keys to Louisiana.
  • Smoke from agricultural fires over portions of southern Mexico is leading to reduced visibility and hazy conditions over parts of the Southwest and west-central Gulf of Mexico.
  • For the forecast, low pressure extending from Northeast Mexico into the southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in moderate to fresh Southeast winds across much of the Gulf through late week.
  • Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night through late week off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula.


  • Divergence aloft associated with an upper level trough North of the Lesser Antilles combined with abundant tropical moisture is resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the north-central and eastern Caribbean Sea.
  • The trough will gradually weaken and move farther Northeast of the area, but atmospheric conditions will remain favorable for convection capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week.
  • Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to Puerto Rico today.
    See local weather advisories for more information.
  • Mainly fresh east winds are being observed in the SE, north- central, and Northwest Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.
  • Elsewhere winds are mainly gentle.
  • Seas are mainly 3 to 5 feet, except 1 to 3 feet in the Southwest Caribbean.
  • For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades over the Southeast Caribbean.
  • Moderate to locally fresh East winds will pulse nightly in the Windward Passage into the middle of the week.
  • A surface trough that had been impacting the north-central and Northeast basin has finally lifting Northeast and out of the area


  • A weak cold front extends from 30 North 55 West to 27 North 68 West .
    No convection is directly associated with this front, but a mid and upper-level trough centered East of the front is inducing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm on either side of a line from 31 North 45 West to 22 North 58 West .
  • Moderate mainly North winds are noted North of the front, with moderate to fresh East winds ahead of the front West of 65 West .
  • Weak high pressure dominates most of the waters to the East of 65 West , but another modest cold front extends from 31 North 42 West to 25 North 50 West.
  • Ahead of this front, to 35 West , fresh Southwest winds prevail.
  • Fresh Northeast winds are occurring off the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara, as well as in the vicinity of the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands.
  • Seas are mainly 4 to 6 feet, with some 7 feet seas where winds are fresh.
  • Waters South of 19 North are dominated by moderate trades with seas of 5 to 7 feet.
  • For the forecast west of 55 West , a cold front will drop southward over the eastern and central waters today and tonight.
  • The front will move east of the area early this week, but some rough seas are expected behind it, North of 25 North and East of 59 West , through the middle of the week.


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