Caribbean braces for 'extremely dangerous' Hurricane Beryl
000
WTNT32 KNHC 010857
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...BERYL TAKING AIM AT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 59.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.  Additional watches
or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 59.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across
the Windward Islands this morning and across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea late today through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the
next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward
Islands into the eastern Caribbean.  Some weakening is expected in
the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to
remain a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).  Grantley Adams International Airport on Barbados
recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust
to 60 mph (96 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early this morning.  Potentially catastrophic wind
damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through portions of
the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting soon, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting this morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for
parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this
afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in
the Grenadines and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding
in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward
and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days.  Swells
are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

By NHC