000
WTNT32 KNHC 020855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... 


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 66.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch 
for all of the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere 
within the warning area.  
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  
A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first 
occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make 
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor 
the progress of Beryl. 
Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor 
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located 
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 66.9 West. 
Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h) and is forecast to 
continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple of days 
and turn westward by Thursday. 
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across 
the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea today and is forecast to 
pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  
Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  
Weakening should begin later today, but Beryl is still expected to be near 
major hurricane intensity as its moves into the central Caribbean and passes 
near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.  
Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to 
remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center 
and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast on 
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday.  
Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength early 
on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along 
the south coast of Hispaniola later today.

Hurricane conditions could begin on Thursday across the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

RAINFALL:  Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica on
Wednesday. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding. Rainfall
from outer bands of Beryl should impact mainly southern portions of
Hispaniola today into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain
possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

By NHC