000
FONT12 KNHC 022040
PWSAT2

HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022024               
2100 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

ROCKPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)

MCALLEN TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

HARLINGEN TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  12(23)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

LA PESCA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)   5(33)   X(33)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  52(67)   X(67)   X(67)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)   X(32)   X(32)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   X(17)   X(17)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  14(33)   X(33)   X(33)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  20(29)   3(32)   X(32)   X(32)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  2   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   3( 3)  69(72)  18(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)  30(30)  30(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)  10(10)  23(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)

MONTEGO BAY    34  2  81(83)  14(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X  31(31)  44(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   8( 8)  34(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

KINGSTON       34  2  96(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KINGSTON       50  X  85(85)   4(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
KINGSTON       64  X  62(62)   4(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)

LES CAYES      34 68  17(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
LES CAYES      50  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 52   3(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)

CAPE BEATA     34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
CAPE BEATA     50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PUERTO PLATA   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

By NHC