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PWSAT2

HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022024               
0300 UTC THU JUL 04 2024                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)

CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)

PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ROCKPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   6(23)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

MCALLEN TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)

HARLINGEN TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   5(16)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  23(38)   5(43)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

LA PESCA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)

TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)

TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MERIDA MX      34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  41(54)   2(56)   X(56)   1(57)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

COZUMEL MX     34  X  26(26)  59(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   2( 2)  40(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GUANAJA        34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  2  11(13)  10(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)

HAVANA         34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLE OF PINES  34  3   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

CIENFUEGOS     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GRAND CAYMAN   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND CAYMAN   50 68   2(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
GRAND CAYMAN   64 13   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

MONTEGO BAY    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MONTEGO BAY    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

KINGSTON       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

By NHC