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HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022024               
0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2024                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)

CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)

MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)

PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

ROCKPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)   5(25)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

MCALLEN TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)

HARLINGEN TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   3(16)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   4(19)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  17(40)   3(43)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

LA PESCA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   2(17)

TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)

TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

MERIDA MX      34  X   2( 2)  25(27)  13(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COZUMEL MX     34  2  78(80)   6(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
COZUMEL MX     50  X  29(29)  11(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

BELIZE CITY    34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GUANAJA        34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  3  12(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

ISLE OF PINES  34  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

CIENFUEGOS     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND CAYMAN   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND CAYMAN   50 96   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

By NHC