526
WTNT32 KNHC 050846
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 27
National Weather Service National Hurricane Center Miami Florida AL022024
4:00 A.M. Central Daylight Time Fri Jul 05 2024

  • HURRICANE BERYL CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
    DANGEROUS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS BERYL MOVES ASHORE

SUMMARY OF 4:00 A.M. Central Daylight Time 09: 00 Coordinated Universal Time INFORMATION

LOCATION 20.1 North 86.9 West
ABOUT 40 Miles, 65 Kilometers East OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 780 Miles, 1250 Kilometers East Southeast OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 Miles Per Hour, 175 Kilometers Per Hour
PRESENT MOVEMENT West Northwest OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 Miles Per Hour, 24 Kilometers Per Hour
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 Millibar, 28.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for

  • The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
  • Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for

  • The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
  • The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for

  • The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
  • The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for

  • Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
  1. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
  2. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
  3. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
  4. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
  5. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
  6. Interests in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.
  7. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for that region later today.
  8. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

  • At 4:00 A.M. Central Daylight Time (09: 00 Coordinated Universal Time), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 86.9 West.
  • Beryl is moving toward the west northwest near 15 Miles Per Hour, (24 Kilometers Per Hour).
  • A west northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula in the next few hours.
  • Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend.
  • Maximum sustained winds are near 110 Miles Per Hour, (175 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
  • Rapid weakening is expected after Beryl moves inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, but slow re intensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 Kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 Kilometers).
  • The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 Millibar, (28.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND:

  • Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning.
  • Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength shortly, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  • Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning.
  • Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Caribbean coast this morning and over the Yucatan Gulf coast later today.
  • Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize this morning.

STORM SURGE:

  • Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area.
  • Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:

  • Through today Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, across the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding anticipated.
  • Heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts is expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas by Sunday into the coming week.
  • For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF:

  • Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula.
  • The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today.
  • These swells are expected to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
  • Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 7:00 A.M. Central Daylight Time.
Next complete advisory at 10:00 A.M. Central Daylight Time.

$$
Forecaster Papin

By NHC