000
WTNT32 KNHC 051448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...BERYL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 88.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued all
watches and warnings for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
south of Punta Allen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Allen to
Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas 
coast should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Hurricane and 
Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for that region later 
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the
center expected to cross the northern Yucatan Peninsula today. Beryl
is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight
and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas by the end of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Continued rapid weakening is expected as Beryl 
moves farther inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today, but 
slow re-intensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the 
Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the hurricane warning
area on the Yucatan Peninsula and will continue for a few more
hours.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring elsewhere in the
hurricane warning area.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for a few more hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area of the Yucatan Caribbean coast this morning and over the
Yucatan Gulf coast later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area
and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Through today Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, across
the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding
anticipated.

Heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts is
expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas by
Sunday into the coming week.  This rainfall is expected to produce
areas of flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the
Yucatan Peninsula.  The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico
and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

By NHC