000
WTNT32 KNHC 071157
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL022024
7:00 A.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME Sun Jul 07 2024
  • AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM
  • BERYL STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
SUMMARY OF 7:00 A.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME 12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 25.5 NORTH 94.9 WEST
ABOUT 225 MILES, 360 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 220 MILES, 355 KILOMETERS SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 MILES PER HOUR, 95 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MILES PER HOUR, 19 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MILLIBAR, 29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
  • The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
  • The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
  • The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Galveston Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
  • The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the RioGrande River
  • The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to High Island
  • The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for
  • North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to High Island, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for
  • The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore
  • High Island to Sabine Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
  • The Texas coast east of High Island to Sabine Pass

 

  1. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
  2. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
  3. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
  4. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
  5. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
  6. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
  7. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
  8. This is a life threatening situation.
  9. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
  10. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
  11. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
  12. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
  13. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.
  14. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
  15. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
  • At 7:00 A.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 94.9 West.
  • Beryl is moving toward the northwest near 12 MILES PER HOUR, (19 KILOMETERS PER HOUR), and this motion should continue through today.
  • A turn toward the north northwest is expected tonight, with a turn toward the north on Monday.
  • On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the Texas coast Monday morning.
  • Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 MILES PER HOUR, (95 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) with higher gusts.
  • Strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again later today or tonight before it reaches the Texas coast.
  • Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 KILOMETERS) from the center.
  • The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 MILLIBAR, (29.29 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: 
  • Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by early Monday.
  • Winds are first expected to reach tropical storm strength by late today, making outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.
  • Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning by tonight.
  • Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Texas and northeastern Mexico by tonight.
  • Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Texas by tonight.
STORM SURGE: 
  • The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.
  • The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide
    • Mesquite Bay TEXAS to San Luis Pass TEXAS 4 TO  6 FEET
    • Matagorda Bay 4 TO  6 FEET
    • San Luis Pass TEXAS  to High Island TEXAS  3 TO 5 FEET
    • NORTH Entrance Padre Island National Seashore TEXAS  to Mesquite Bay TEXAS  3 TO 5 FEET
    • Corpus Christi Bay 3 TO 5 FEET
    • Galveston Bay 3 TO 5 FEET
    • Mouth of the Rio Grande TEXAS TO NORTH Entrance Padre Island National Seashore TEXAS 2 TO 4 FEET
    • High Island TEXAS to Sabine Pass TEXAS  2 TO 4 FEET
    • Sabine Pass TEXAS to Cameron, LOUISIANNA 1 TO 3 FEET
  • The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
  • Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
  • For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
  • For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL:  
  • Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts  of 15 inches is expected across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning today through Monday night.
  • This rainfall will produce areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally considerable. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also expected.
  • For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
TORNADOES: 
  • A tornado threat will likely develop this evening into tonight for portions of the middle and upper Texas coast.
SURF:  
  • Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next few days.
  • These swells are expected to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 10:00 A.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME.
$$
Forecaster Blake

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

By NHC