955
WTNT32 KNHC 072049
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA AL022024
4:00 P.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME Sun Jul 07 2024
  • BERYL FORECAST TO BRING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS TO TEXAS OVERNIGHT
SUMMARY OF 4:00 P.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME 21:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 26. 8 NORTH 95. 5 WEST
ABOUT 130 MILES, 205 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 135 MILES, 220 KILOMETERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 MILES PER HOUR, 100 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTH NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MILES PER HOUR, 19 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MILLIBAR, 29.18  INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
  • The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.
  • The Storm Surge Watch from North of Baffin Bay Texas to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for
  • North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine Pass including Corpus Christi Bay Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
  • The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
  • The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Galveston Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
  • The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande
  • The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass
  1. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
  2. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
  3. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.
  4. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
  5. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov.
  6. This is a life threatening situation.
  7. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
  8. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
  9. For storm information specific to your area including possible inland watches and warnings please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
  • AT 4:00 P.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (21:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME) the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 26.8 North longitude 95.5 West.
  • Beryl is moving toward the north northwest near 12 MILES PER HOUR, (19 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
  • This general motion is expected to continue through tonight with a turn toward the north forecast on Monday.
  • On the forecast track the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday.
  • Beryl is forecast to turn northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday.
  • Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 MILES PER HOUR, (100 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) with higher gusts.
  • Strengthening is expected and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight.
  • Additional strengthening is expected before Beryl reaches the Texas coast early Monday.
  • Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 KILOMETERS) from the center.
  • The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 MILLIBAR, (29.18 inches) based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT2 WMO HEADER WTNT42 KNHC AND ON THE NHC WEBSITE AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: 
  • Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by early Monday.
  • Winds are first expected to reach tropical storm strength by late today making outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.
  • Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by early Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning by tonight.
  • Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in south Texas starting within the next few hours.
  • Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area along the upper Texas coast early Monday.
STORM SURGE: 
  • The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.
  • The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide
    • PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS 4 7 FEET
    • MATAGORDA BAY 4 7 FEET
    • SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS 4 TO 6 FEET
    • GALVESTON BAY 4 TO 6 FEET
    • MESQUITE BAY TEXAS TO PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS 3 TO 5 FEET
    • HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS TEXAS 3 TO 5 FEET
  • The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
  • Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances.
  • For information specific to your area please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
  • For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL:  
  • Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches is expected across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas through Monday night.
  • Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected.
  • For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
TORNADOES: 
  • A few tornadoes could occur along the middle and upper Texas Coast through tonight and across eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas on Monday.
SURF:  
  • Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or two.
  • These swells are expected to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 7:00 P.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10:00 P.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME.
$$
Forecaster Blake

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