203 
WTNT32 KNHC 080542
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
100 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS 
COAST...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH 
FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 95.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston
Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Mesquite Bay northward to Port Bolivar

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast south of Mesquite Bay to Port Mansfield
* The Texas coast north of Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located 
near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 95.9 West. Beryl is moving 
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the 
north is expected this morning. On the forecast track, the center 
of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast 
during the next several hours. Beryl is forecast to turn 
northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and 
Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
and coastal Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained 
winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Additional strengthening is expected before the center reaches the 
Texas coast. Significant weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Matagorda, Texas, 
recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a wind 
gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are 
currently spreading across the warning area.

Tropical storm conditions will spread across the tropical storm
warning area in south Texas during the next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area along the upper Texas coast during the next several 
hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...4-7 ft
Matagorda Bay...4-7 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX...4-6 ft
Galveston Bay...4-6 ft
Mesquite Bay, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas through Monday night.
Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated
major river flooding is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur tonight along the middle and
upper Texas Coast, and on Monday across parts of east Texas,
Louisiana, and Arkansas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern
Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day
or two. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

By NHC