648 WTPZ45 KNHC 061446 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024 Following a burst of deep convection near the center of circulation overnight, Emilia has remained steady this morning. Scatterometer data overnight showed a well-organized circulation, and a combination of subjective Dvorak estimates and objective intensity estimates indicate that the intensity has not changed much since the prior advisory. Thus, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Emilia has begun a turn toward the west-northwest, but the motion remains an uncertain 300/5 kt. Emilia and Tropical Storm Fabio are in the midst of a complex interaction, which will determine the fate of both storms. The systems are forecast to rotate slightly around each other, prior to Emilia becoming the dominant storm. Of note is that the global GFS and ECMWF ensemble systems show different solutions, with the GFS solution keeping Emilia and Fabio more distinct. The current advisory leans toward Emilia becoming dominant, absorbing Fabio, and turning westward over the next several days. The current forecast is similar to the prior forecast and near the consensus models. The interaction with Fabio makes the intensity forecast challenging. The current forecast favors the solution in which Emilia absorbs Fabio in a few days. Thus, steady intensification is forecast over the next 24 h, with Emilia reaching hurricane strength on Wednesday. While the timing of the merger is uncertain, the storm is forecast to gradually weaken into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period as it moves over cooler ocean waters and into a generally less favorable environment. Due to the uncertainty associated with the interaction with Tropical Storm Fabio, changes to Emilia's forecast could be necessary in later advisory packages. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.0N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.7N 115.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.7N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 18.7N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 20.3N 121.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 21.2N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 22.9N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 23.9N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hogsett
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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