889 WTPZ41 KNHC 071440 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024 Fabio is barely a tropical cyclone this morning. Water vapor imagery shows dry air wrapping into the circulation from the west, and vertical wind shear associated with nearby Tropical Storm Emilia continues to disrupt the convective organization of Fabio. Currently, the storm is only producing small bursts of sheared convection over 100 n mi to the northeast of its exposed low-level center. A blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt. Passive microwave and proxy-visible satellite images indicate Fabio is now moving south of due west (265/18 kt). This general motion should continue through tonight while Fabio interacts with the outer circulation of Emilia. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one based on recent motion trends. Given the hostile environmental conditions described above, Fabio appears unlikely to become better organized in the short term. The NHC forecast shows Fabio becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 12 h before merging with Emilia on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 20.1N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.7N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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