Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Advisory

Posted on by NHC 

050 
WTNT25 KNHC 112048
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
2100 UTC SUN AUG 11 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  48.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  48.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  47.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.3N  51.2W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.2N  55.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.9N  59.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N  62.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.3N  64.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N  66.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.9N  67.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 27.7N  66.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N  48.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 12/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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Ukraine Says Its Biggest Problem Is Western Concern For Escalation

Ukraine Says Its Biggest Problem Is Western Concern For Escalation

Ukraine Says Its Biggest Problem Is Western Concern For Escalation

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Wednesday that the biggest problem Kyiv has faced in its war against Russia is the Western concern for escalation and the risk of provoking Moscow.

“Ever since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the biggest problem Ukraine has been facing is the domination of the concept of escalation in the decision-making processes among our partners,” Kuleba said, according to Reuters.

The foreign minister’s comments come as Ukraine is pushing hard for the US to allow long-range strikes inside Russian territory using US-provided missiles. Russia has strongly warned against the move and suggested that it would risk World War III.

“The war is always about a lot of hardware: money, weapons, resources but the real problems are always here, in the heads,” Kuleba said. 

“Most of our partners are afraid of discussing the future of Russia… This is something that is very upsetting because if we do not speak about the future of the source of threat, then we cannot build strategy.”

Throughout the war, the US and NATO have taken steps that they previously ruled out over escalation concerns, such as providing tanks and fighter jets.

The most recent significant escalation was President Biden’s decision to give Ukraine the greenlight to use US weapons in attacks on Russian border regions. A few months later, Ukraine launched its invasion of Kursk.

Meanwhile Western main battle tanks continue to show up on Russian soil…

Kuleba made the comments during a conversation with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who expressed support for allowing Ukraine to launch long-range strikes with NATO weapons. Sikorski said NATO should “let Ukraine fight with whatever it has, with whatever we have delivered them, and let’s deliver them more.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/29/2024 – 23:05