000
WTNT35 KNHC 112335
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami Florida AL052024
8:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time Sun Aug 11 2024
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD
SUMMARY OF 8:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time 00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 13.9 NORTH 49.1 WEST
ABOUT 875 MILES, 1405 KILOMETERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MILES PER HOUR, 45 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT WEST NORTHWEST, OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MILES PER HOUR, 37 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MILLIBAR, 29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
- Guadeloupe
- Saint Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
- Saba and Saint Eustatius
- Saint Martin
- Sint Maarten
- A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
- Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.
- Additional watches could be required later tonight or early Monday.
- For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 8:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time (00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 49.1 West.
- The system is moving toward the west northwest near 23 Miles Per Hour, (37 Kilometers Per Hour) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
- On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S.and British Virgin Islands Tuesday night.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 30 Miles Per Hour, (45 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by late Monday.
- Formation chance through 48 hours high 80 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days high 90 percent.
- The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 Millibar, (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
RAINFALL:
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward Islands.
For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
- Windward Islands 1 to 2 inches Southern Leeward Islands 2 to 4 inches Eastern Hispaniola 2 to 4 inches.
WIND:
- Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday.
SURF:
- Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning Monday night.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
- Next complete advisory at 11:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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