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FONT15 KNHC 120241
PWSAT5
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 4(35) 1(36)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 6(38) X(38)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) 1(27)
SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 35(48) 3(51) X(51)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 34(53) 2(55) X(55)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 24(48) 2(50) X(50)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 9(43) 1(44) X(44)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 7(47) 1(48) X(48)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 5(47) 1(48) X(48)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 4(46) 1(47) X(47)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 1(32) 1(33) X(33)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 20(20) 16(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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