000 WTPZ42 KNHC 261459 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Gilma still has a well-defined eye, seen on GOES-18 infrared and proxy-vis satellite imagery. The latest subjective intensity estimates are T-4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T-5.0/90 kt from SAB. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS such as the ADT and DPRINT are in the 80 to 85 kt range. However, during the last couple of hours, the eye has warmed and the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, so the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt, in best agreement with the SAB Dvorak intensity estimate. Gilma is likely currently experiencing 10 to 15 kt of westerly wind shear as it continues moving near and parallel to the 26C SST isotherm. Fluctuations in intensity appear possible for the next 12 h. Beyond 12 to 18 h, the westerly shear is forecast to increase to the 15 to 20 kt range, and the SSTs are forecast to decrease slightly along the path beyond 36 h. These factors, along with the relatively dry, stable environmental air mass that Gilma will be traversing for the remainder of its lifetime, are expected to lead to continued steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous official forecast at hour 12, and then is similar to the previous official forecast. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/7 kt as it continues moving along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge. The models continue to be in good cross-track agreement that the west to west-northwestward motion will continue, although there are still some along-track differences in the guidance. The new NHC forecast lies very close to, but perhaps a touch to the south of the previous official forecast. This forecast is close to the HCCA and TCVE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 18.2N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.3N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 141.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 19.5N 146.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.9N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 20.8N 152.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 21.8N 156.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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