652 WTPZ42 KNHC 271448 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Gilma is unraveling quickly. The center is now exposed, with all the convection off to the east, thanks to westerly vertical wind shear, which is finally taking a toll on the cyclone. Current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 90 and 77 kt, respectively, due to constraints. Recent objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 55 to 69 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt for this advisory as a blend of the data. Gilma has sped up a bit and is now moving westward, or 270/11 kt. A subtropical ridge north of Gilma should continue to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward, with a slight increase in forward speed over the next day or so. The NHC forecast has been adjusted very slightly to the south of the previous track prediction and is in best agreement with the TCVE consensus aid. Stronger westerly vertical wind shear and the entrainment of dry and stable environmental air are taking a toll on Gilma. As a result, Gilma's center is now exposed, with the convective area becoming displaced farther to the east of the low-level center. The areal coverage and intensity of the convection to the east of the center has also been decreasing over the past several hours. Therefore, intensity estimates for Gilma have been rapidly decreasing. Gilma is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today. Although Gilma is likely to become a low-end tropical storm in 24-36 h, some model guidance suggests that the cyclone may continue to have pulsing deep convection, which should be enough to maintain some tropical storm force winds in the northern semi-circle through Thursday. After that, westerly wind shear is forecast to increase even more, which should cause Gilma to lose its convection and become a remnant low sometime around Thursday night. It is possible that Gilma could become a remnant low sooner than forecast. Future information on this system can be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.5N 140.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.6N 142.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.9N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.4N 146.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.9N 149.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 20.3N 151.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 20.8N 153.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z 22.2N 158.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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