Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 060244
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Kirk is gradually succumbing to the effects of increasing vertical 
wind shear.  Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the eye is 
becoming more ragged and cloud-filled, and the southwestern quadrant 
is wrapping in more dry air.  Dvorak estimates have decreased this 
cycle and the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt, closest to the 
TAFB estimate of 102 kt.

The hurricane is moving northward at 17 kt in the flow between a 
deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge 
centered over the eastern Atlantic.  Model guidance remains tightly 
clustered, and very few changes have been made to the latest 
official track forecast which lie close to the various consensus 
aids.  Kirk is expected to move north of the Azores on Monday and 
move over western Europe Tuesday evening or Wednesday.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to become less 
conducive in the coming days.  Vertical wind shear should become 
quite strong later Sunday, and Kirk is expected to cross the 26 
degree C isotherm Sunday evening.  Global models predict Kirk to 
become an extratropical cyclone on Tuesday and to then be absorbed 
into a larger extratropical system later this week over northern 
Europe.  The latest NHC intensity forecast now reflects these 
changes.

Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from 
the hurricane. These large swells have increased the risk of 
dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, 
and the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and portions of the U.S. East 
Coast. By Sunday, swells are expected to spread northward along the 
eastern seaboard and reach the Azores by Monday. For more 
information on this hazard, see products issued by your local 
weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 31.3N  49.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 34.0N  48.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 37.6N  44.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 40.7N  39.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 42.8N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  08/1200Z 43.7N  24.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/0000Z 44.1N  15.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0000Z 49.5N   3.7E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter

Stay informed! Subscribe to our daily newsletter to receive updates on our latest blog posts directly in your inbox. Don’t let important information get buried by big tech.






Current subscribers:

  • NHC

    Related Posts

    Trump Taps Former ICE Director Tom Homan As ‘Border Czar’

    Trump Taps Former ICE Director Tom Homan As ‘Border Czar’

    President-elect Donald Trump revealed on Sunday night that he plans to appoint Tom Homan, who served as the acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement between 2017 and 2018, as the next “border czar.” 

    “I am pleased to announce that the Former ICE Director, and stalwart on Border Control, Tom Homan, will be joining the Trump Administration, in charge of our Nation’s Borders (“The Border Czar”), including, but not limited to, the Southern Border, the Northern Border, all Maritime, and Aviation Security,” Trump wrote on Truth Social

    Trump continued, “I’ve known Tom for a long time, and there is nobody better at policing and controlling our Borders. Likewise, Tom Homan will be in charge of all Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin.” 

    “Congratulations to Tom. I have no doubt he will do a fantastic, and long awaited for, job,” Trump said. 

    In recent weeks, Homan gave one of the most based interviews on immigration to the far-left media outlet CBS News’ 60 Minutes. When asked about the taxpayer cost of deporting millions of illegal aliens, he responded, “What price do you put on national security?”

    At the Republican National Convention in July, Homan told Trump supporters: “I’ve got a message … to all the illegal aliens in violation of federal law … you better start packing now.” 

    Homan recently torched far-left activist lawmaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while on The Hill.

    While Homan secures the southern and northern borders and oversees the deportation of illegal aliens, there will be significant moves by the Trump administration to disrupt and destroy dark money financial and trade networks that have sparked the horrific 100,000 US drug death overdose crisis per year caused by fentanyl and other drugs – much of which starts as precursor chemicals shipped from China, cooked into fentanyl by Mexican cartels, then flooded in the Lower 48. 

    More on Trump’s plan to eradicate Mexican cartels: “Show No Mercy”: Trump’s Campaign Pledge To Annihilate Mexican Cartels Goes Viral.

    Make Law And Order Great Again.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 11/11/2024 – 07:20

    Trump secures the largest popular vote count by a Republican in history

    President-elect Donald Trump has achieved a record-breaking popular vote count for a Republican candidate in the 2024 election, according to projections, NY Post reported. As of Monday morning, Trump had secured 74.83 million popular votes, surpassing his previous record of 74.22 million votes from the 2020 election, as reported by the Associated Press. Currently, Trump […]

    The post Trump secures the largest popular vote count by a Republican in history appeared first on Insider Paper.

    You Missed

    Trump Taps Former ICE Director Tom Homan As ‘Border Czar’

    Trump Taps Former ICE Director Tom Homan As ‘Border Czar’

    Trump secures the largest popular vote count by a Republican in history

    Trump secures the largest popular vote count by a Republican in history

    TRUMP IS DRIVING THE BRAINWASHED LIBS CERTIFIABLY INSANE! — Jeff Dornik

    🔴LIVE! Veteran’s Day @ Magic Kingdom! | Stroll and Chill Livestream | Disney World 2024

    🔴LIVE! Veteran’s Day @ Magic Kingdom! | Stroll and Chill Livestream | Disney World 2024

    Trump’s Victory Saved America

    Trump’s Victory Saved America

    Hawkins: Real Heroes Wear Combat Uniforms and Keep the USA Free

    Hawkins: Real Heroes Wear Combat Uniforms and Keep the USA Free