Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion


567 
WTNT43 KNHC 060246
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Leslie is holding steady this evening.  Geostationary imagery 
shows a growing Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with periodic burst 
of embedded deep convection.  An ASCAT pass from earlier showed 
that has a small core with the center near the southern side of 
the deep convection.  Objective and subjective satellite estimates 
range from 50 to 77 kt.  The initial intensity is held at an 
uncertain 70 kt, favoring the SAB and TAFB estimates.   

The hurricane is moving at an estimated 310/8 kt.  A subtropical 
ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic has turned Leslie to the 
northwest, and this motion is expected to continue, with a slight 
increase in forward speed, for the entire forecast period.  Model 
guidance is in relatively good agreement about this forecast and 
only small adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track 
prediction.

According to the SHIP diagnostics, Leslie only has a few more hours 
in the low vertical wind shear environment.  On Sunday, increasing 
wind shear and dry mid-level humidities should induce a gradual 
weakening trend for the entire forecast period.  Some model 
guidance is showing that Leslie could weaken quicker than forecast, 
and adjustments to the intensity forecast could be necessary in 
subsequent advisories.  The latest NHC forecast has been nudged 
downward, slightly above the consensus aid IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 12.4N  36.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 13.2N  37.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 14.4N  39.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 15.5N  40.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 16.8N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 18.2N  44.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 19.5N  46.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 21.7N  49.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 23.4N  51.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


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