Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 070839
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024

Kirk has almost completed extratropical transition.  The inner core
of the system has basically collapsed and deep convection is
limited to the northern half of the circulation.  The system is
moving into a baroclinic zone, and it is expected to be an
extratropical cyclone later today.  The initial intensity is nudged
downward to 65 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite 
intensity estimates.

Strong shear, dry air, cool waters, and a decrease in upper-level
dynamics should cause Kirk to gradually lose strength.  However, the
system's wind field will remain large and Kirk is still expected to
be a strong extratropical low during the next couple of days.  The
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest GFS
solution.

Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial
motion is 050/26 kt.  A turn to the east-northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days
as the system moves within the fast mid-latitude westerly flow.
This should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on
Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday.

Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large
swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across
portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and
Atlantic Canada.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 40.2N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 42.2N  36.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  08/0600Z 43.4N  29.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/1800Z 43.5N  21.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/0600Z 43.9N  11.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  09/1800Z 46.0N   2.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter

Stay informed! Subscribe to our daily newsletter to receive updates on our latest blog posts directly in your inbox. Don’t let important information get buried by big tech.






Current subscribers:

  • NHC

    Related Posts

    Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 14

    …CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA…
    …STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND RAINS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS CUBA
    TONIGHT…
    Location: 23.5°N 83.6°W
    Max sustained: 105 mph
    Moving: NW at 13 mph
    Min pressure: 969 mb

    Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

    Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 13A

    …CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
    …8 PM EST POSITION UPDATE…
    Location: 23.3°N 83.3°W
    Max sustained: 105 mph
    Moving: NW at 14 mph
    Min pressure: 968 mb

    Issued at 700 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

    You Missed

    Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 14

    • By NHC
    • November 6, 2024
    • 1 views

    Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 13A

    • By NHC
    • November 6, 2024
    • 2 views

    Dave Smith: Will Trump Be Able To End The War In Ukraine?

    Dave Smith: Will Trump Be Able To End The War In Ukraine?

    Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory

    • By NHC
    • November 6, 2024
    • 3 views

    Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Gallant; Set to Fire Military Chiefs

    Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Gallant; Set to Fire Military Chiefs

    Iranian currency falls to historic low after Donald Trump named next president of the United States

    Iranian currency falls to historic low after Donald Trump named next president of the United States