Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 14

571 
WTNT23 KNHC 070251
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  83.6W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  83.6W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  83.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.4N  84.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N  86.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N  88.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N  89.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N  90.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N  91.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N  92.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N  93.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  30SW  50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N  83.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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