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SPC Jun 26, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY...
The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms today appears to be
from central Illinois to parts of Lower Michigan, and over parts of
the southern High Plains. Damaging wind and large hail are forecast
in those areas, and a few tornadoes will also be possible,
especially over the Illinois-Michigan corridor. ...Synopsis...
An atypically amplified mid/upper-level synoptic pattern will
persist for this time of year, dominated by:
1. A blocking ridge over the West Coast States and western Canada,
with anchoring anticyclone centered over southern BC that will
contribute to record heat in the Northwest this weekend;
2. A positively tilted trough, extending from a cyclone over
southern Baffin Island and adjoining waters, across northwestern ON,
the Red River of the North, central High Plains, western NM, and
Sonora. A series of mostly low-amplitude (but still potentially important)
shortwaves and vorticity maxima will be embedded in the southwest
flow from NM to the upper Great Lakes, preceding the mid/upper
trough. Among these will be a convectively induced/reinforced
perturbation now moving northeastward from the lower Missouri Valley
region across northern MO and IA. This feature should eject across
northern IL and WI by this evening, perhaps phasing with a closely
spaced MCV evident in composited radar imagery over southwestern MO.
Another MCV is apparent just behind that, over north-central/
northeastern OK, and likewise should move northeastward toward IL
through the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over western IA, with
wavy, quasistationary front across parts of WI and lower MI to
another low over Georgian Bay on Lake Huron. A slow-moving cold
front extended from the IA low southwestward across central KS to
central NM. The IA low-pressure area will elongate northeastward
and perhaps split, covering parts of WI, Lake Michigan and northern
Lower MI by 06Z. The cold front should continue to drift
southeastward toward a series of warm-sector outflow boundaries. The effectively blended baroclinic zone represented by the front and
outflow boundaries -- aligned largely parallel to the
southwesterlies aloft -- will be the major focus for convective
potential through the period. That will include severe-thunderstorm
threats for this outlook, and heavy rainfall noted in WPC products. ...IL-MI...
Scattered thunderstorms in multiple modes are expected to move
northeastward across this area from midday through the afternoon,
offering damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and isolated severe hail. Enhanced low/middle-level flow is expected east and southeast of the
midlevel MCVs/troughs, contributing to effective-shear magnitudes
potentially reaching the 35-45-kt range, in support of organized
multicells and a few supercells. A 40-50-kt LLJ and backed surface
flow along boundaries will enlarge hodographs, yielding pockets of
effective SRH in the 250-350 J/kg range. As such, any supercells or
suitably oriented QLCS segments interacting with the boundaries may
pose a locally magnified tornado threat. Mid/upper-level lapse
rates will be modest, but a combination of diurnal heating near the
boundaries, rich low-level moisture (e.g., surface dew points upper
60s to mid 70s F), minimal MLCINH, and boundary lift should ensure
considerable convective development with access to an adjoining
warm-sector corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given the largely
boundary-parallel flow aloft, training bands/clusters and
messy/high-precipitation modes are likely to evolve over time. ...Southern Plains...
Isolated to locally numerous thunderstorms in clusters are expected
to form this afternoon on either side of outflow boundaries left
behind by prior and ongoing convection across this corridor. These
boundaries may shift back northward in parts of the area prior to
the afternoon convective cycle. Strong-severe convection also may
develop along a dryline that should mix into the southern South
Plains and Permian Basin region south of the outflow/frontal zones. With all this activity, large hail and severe gusts will be the main
concerns, with tornado potential marginal and conditionally tied to
storm-scale/boundary processes. Stronger, more-sustained diurnal heating and somewhat greater lapse
rates aloft are expected over this region, compared to farther
northeast past the Ozarks and Mississippi Valley, but amidst weaker
deep shear. Forecast soundings suggest favorable moisture with
upper 50s to 60s dew points above the Caprock, and mid 60s to lower
70s across northwest TX into OK, will enable MLCAPE into the
1500-3000 J/kg range (locally greater). Where boundaries can back
surface flow and heat strongly, effective SRH around 150-200 J/kg
may develop, with effective-shear magnitudes 40-45 kt, supporting a
supercell/multicell modal mix. South of the boundaries, modest deep
shear and higher cloud bases (with deeper well-mixed subcloud
layers) will foster more outflow-producing multicells. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 06/26/2021 

Read more Originally posted at National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center

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