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SPC Aug 4, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF MT... ...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana
from mid-afternoon through this evening. ...MT...
A shortwave impulse near the WA/ID/BC border area will dampen as it
gradually slides east then southeast into MT. Isolated to possibly
scattered thunderstorms are expected downstream of this feature
later this afternoon and persisting into this evening. This
convection should be rather high-based as deeply mixed thermodynamic
profiles ensue at peak heating, with only weak buoyancy as MLCAPE
holds below 1000 J/kg. The somewhat more favorable overlap of
buoyancy with effective shear should occur across northwest MT just
ahead of the mid-level impulse. Here, a threat exists for marginally
severe hail in addition to isolated severe wind gusts. Farther east
in central MT, the wind hazard should dominate with small hail also
possible. ...Coastal southern New England...
Guidance differs with the potential inland penetration of a
surface-based warm sector tonight, ahead of a broad upper trough
over the eastern U.S. and embedded shortwave impulses along the
Eastern Seaboard. The 14Z RAP is more aggressive than the 12Z NAM
with this scenario, advecting low 70s surface dew points into
coastal southern New England overnight. Extensive stratiform and
embedded convective elements off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
coast at present suggests that this degree of destabilization
appears unlikely. Thus, have refrained from an upgrade to cat 1/MRGL
risk at this juncture. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 08/04/2021 

Read more Originally posted at National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center

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