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SPC Aug 5, 2021 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 4-8 Outlook
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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CDT Thu Aug 05 2021 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION...
On Sun/D4, models indicate a leading shortwave trough will move
slowly eastward across the upper MS valley, where upper 60s to lower
70s F dewpoints will exist. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing with this wave across IA, MN, and WI, which will limit
destabilization and decreases predictability for further severe
potential during the day. For the Mon/D5 to Thu/D8 period, although there is now better
run-to-run consistency with the ECMWF, major differences remain
among the models regarding a consolidating shortwave trough evolving
out of MT. The ECMWF is much slower and not as deep as GFS members,
which produce significant cyclonic flow aloft across the Great
Lakes. Given vast model differences, predictability is too low to
outline severe threat areas. However, low-level moisture and
instability will be present ahead of whatever upper trough may
eventually affect the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great
Lakes. 

Read more Originally posted at National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center

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