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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Thu Aug 05 2021 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sun/D4, models indicate a leading shortwave trough will move slowly eastward across the upper MS valley, where upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing with this wave across IA, MN, and WI, which will limit destabilization and decreases predictability for further severe potential during the day. For the Mon/D5 to Thu/D8 period, although there is now better run-to-run consistency with the ECMWF, major differences remain among the models regarding a consolidating shortwave trough evolving out of MT. The ECMWF is much slower and not as deep as GFS members, which produce significant cyclonic flow aloft across the Great Lakes. Given vast model differences, predictability is too low to outline severe threat areas. However, low-level moisture and instability will be present ahead of whatever upper trough may eventually affect the northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great Lakes.
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