SPC Jan 23, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona
and southwest New Mexico. ...Southwestern US... 00z model guidance continues to suggest the upper low currently
located along the AZ/Sonora border will shift east later today as
500mb speed max rotates through the base of the low toward the Big
Bend region of west TX by the end of the period. Steep lapse rates
and cold temperatures north of the mid-level jet will contribute to
weak buoyancy beneath the upper low. This should be more than
adequate for weak convection aided by diurnal heating. Forecast
sounding for DUG later this afternoon suggests MUCAPE in excess of
200 J/kg which would permit cloud tops well above levels necessary
for lightning discharge. For these reasons will continue with low
thunderstorm probabilities for portions of southern AZ and NM. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/23/2022

Read more Originally posted at National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center