SPC Jan 25, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are expected across portions of central
and southern Florida. ...Florida... Weakening mid-level short-wave trough over east TX is forecast to
deamplify further over the next 24-36hr as it tracks across the Gulf
States and off the SC/GA Coast Tuesday night. This feature will
prove partly responsible for forcing a weak surface low across the
northern Gulf Basin where it will be shunted southeast and further
weaken, well west of the southern FL Peninsula. Air mass over FL is
currently cool and dry, and significant moistening is required
before sufficient buoyancy will be in place for potential
thunderstorm development. While low levels need considerable
moistening before SBCAPE can develop, mid-level saturation is
forecast by early evening such that elevated convection appears
possible after sunset. Where surface dew points can rise into the
upper 60s along the southern Gulf Coast, there is some potential for
a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE by the end of the period. Regardless,
weak surface-3km flow does not look particularly conducive for any
meaningful threat of severe, especially given the weakening offshore
surface low. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/25/2022

Read more Originally posted at National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center