SPC Jan 25, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
southern Florida Wednesday. ...Synopsis...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress through
the broadly cyclonic flow in place over the CONUS, tracking from its
early period position over the NM/AZ border eastward across the
southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. At the same time, a pair
of shortwave troughs are expected to move through the northern
stream. The easternmost shortwave will move through the Northeast
States while the westernmost shortwave moves from the Canadian
Prairie Provinces southwestward through the northern Plains, Upper
Midwest, and much of Ontario. Progression of these shortwaves will
help maintain broad upper troughing across the central and eastern
CONUS. Farther west, an upper ridge is expected to gradually build
eastward, ending the period centered along the West Coast. An expansive area of high pressure will dominate the sensible
weather across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The only
exception is across central and southern FL, where modest low-level
moisture will support thunderstorms in the vicinity of a weak cold
front. ...Central/Southern FL...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over this region as the cold
front gradually shifts southward. Dewpoints ahead of the front will
likely be in the low to mid 60s across central FL, with slightly
higher values farther south across southern FL. Even so, instability
will be modest, tempered by warm mid-level temperatures. Low-level
flow will also be relatively weak, but enhanced mid-level flow will
still result in moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Overall
environmental conditions appear supportive of a strong storm or two,
but the modest buoyancy and weak low-level flow both work against a
more substantial severe risk. Heights across the region are also
neutral or maybe slightly rising with any large-scale forcing for
ascent negligible. These factors are expected to minimize the
overall severe risk, precluding the need for any severe
probabilities with this forecast. ..Mosier.. 01/25/2022

Read more Originally posted at National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center