March 29, 2023

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 31 2023 – 12Z Thu Feb 02 2023

  • Prolonged and significant ice storm to continue impacting a large area from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley
  • Dangerous wind chills over the central and western United States linger through this morning
  • Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible across parts of the Deep South and Southeast by midweek

The headlining weather story over the next few days will be the ongoing ice storm affecting portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South that is forecast to continue into at least early Thursday.

In the wake of an arctic cold frontal passage, warm and moist air overrunning cold air at the surface draped over the region will produce freezing rain and sleet that could lead to significant impacts.

Furthermore, multiple rounds of wintry precipitation are forecast, with brief lulls followed by bursts of sleet and freezing rain that could drastically deteriorate road conditions.

Widespread total ice accretion of greater than 0.25″ is likely from West Texas to western Tennessee, with localized areas receiving as much as 0.75″.

In addition to potentially hazardous travel conditions, this amount of ice will likely lead to tree damage and scattered power outages across the hardest-hit regions.

Sleet accumulations around a half inch or locally higher are also possible from West Texas to Arkansas, which can also lead to treacherous travel or add to the already slippery conditions.

As a result, Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued.

Travelers are advised to check road conditions before venturing out and drive with extreme caution.

The cold airmass responsible for the icy forecast in the Mid-South will also lead to one more morning of well below average temperatures and
frigid wind chills throughout the central and western United States.

Widespread temperature departures of 10-30 degrees below average are forecast throughout much of the Plains and Intermountain West this
morning, with temperatures below zero in many spots.

Bitterly cold air, coupled with gusty winds, has led to the issuance of Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories across the central and northern Plains, as well as parts of the Intermountain West.

Wind chill values are forecast to drop as low as -40F to start the day before temperatures begin to rebound for the next few days.

The next shot of arctic air is anticipated to enter North Dakota and the Upper Midwest by Thursday.

Along and just to the north of the aforementioned frontal boundary lingering along the Gulf Coast, numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop and push eastward from eastern Texas beginning on Wednesday.

This final surge of moisture in tandem with a lifting upper-level trough exiting northern Mexico may lead to a swath of 1-2″ of rainfall, with locally higher amounts across the Deep South and parts of the Southeast. Saturated soils throughout the region may exacerbate the flash flooding concern, which has led to a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday spanning from eastern Texas
to northwest Georgia, with the threat gradually sliding eastward each day.

Elsewhere, lake effect snow continues deep into this winter with several additional inches of fresh snow likely along the western facing lakefronts.

The highest accumulations are forecast downwind of Lake Ontario, where a foot of snow is possible.

Waves of light to moderate snow are also possible to the north of a sinking cold front from the Northeast to the central Appalachians this morning, with an additional round of light snow possible over the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday morning.


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