518
WTPZ34 KNHC 192043
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA, EP092023
3:00 P.M. MOUNTAIN DAYLIGHT TIME SATURDAY AUG 19 2023
- HEAVY RAINS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
- CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY.
SUMMARY OF 3:00 P.M. MOUNTAIN DAYLIGHT TIME, 21:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME,
INFORMATION
LOCATION, 23.8 NORTH 114.1 WEST
ABOUT 285 MILES, 455 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 640 MILES, 1030 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 110 MILES PER HOUR, 175 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT, NORTH NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MILES PER HOUR, 28 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 959 MILLIBAR, 28.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.
- BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR.
- BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN QUINTIN TO ENSENADA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.
- BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD
- BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ENTIRE EAST COAST
- BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN QUINTIN TO THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER
- MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF GUAYMAS
- CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER TO POINT MUGU
- CATALINA ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR.
- MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO GUAYMAS
- A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
- A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
- PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
- A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
- A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
- INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILARY.
- FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
- FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- AT 3:00 P.M. MOUNTAIN DAYLIGHT TIME (21:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST
- HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MILES PER HOUR (28 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
- THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
- ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF HILARY WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MILES PER HOUR (175 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
- CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, BUT HILARY WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
- HILARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
- HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KILOMETERS) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES (425 KILOMETERS).
- A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MILES PER HOUR (74 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) AND A GUST OF 61 MILES PER HOUR (98 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT PUERTO CORTES.
- THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 959 MILLIBAR (28.32 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
KEY MESSAGES FOR HILARY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MILESATCDEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ44 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP4.SHTML.
RAINFALL:
- HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC, IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, PEAKING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
- DANGEROUS TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
- ELSEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING.
WIND:
- HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH ON SUNDAY.
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND SUNDAY.
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY.
- WINDS COULD BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
- HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND WILL PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES POST TROPICAL.
STORM SURGE:
- A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS, OR EAST OF THE CENTER IF HILARY MAKES LANDFALL.
- THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
TORNADOES:
- A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR SUNDAY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MOJAVE DESERT, AND IMPERIAL VALLEY REGIONS.
SURF:
- LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HILARY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
- PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 6:00 P.M. MOUNTAIN DAYLIGHT TIME.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 9:00 P.M. MOUNTAIN DAYLIGHT TIME.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI