000
WTPZ34 KNHC 201142
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA, EP092023
5:00 A.M. PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME SUNDAY AUG 20 2023
- HILARY VERY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…
- CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY…
SUMMARY OF 5:00 A.M. PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME, 12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME,
INFORMATION
LOCATION,28.8 NORTH 115.5 WEST
ABOUT 285 MILES, 460 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 80 MILES PER HOUR, 130 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT, NORTH NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 21 MILES PER HOUR, 33 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 979 MILLIBAR, 28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN QUINTIN TO ENSENADA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WEST COAST FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA FE
- BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EAST COAST FROM SAN EVARISTO NORTHWESTARD
- BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN QUINTIN TO THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER
- MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF GUAYMAS
- CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER TO POINT MUGU
- CATALINA ISLAND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILARY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- AT 5:00 A.M. PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MILES PER HOUR (33 KILOMETERS PER HOUR). - HILARY IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
- ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF HILARY WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON.
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MILES PER HOUR (130 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
- WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, BUT HILARY IS LIKELY TO STILL BE A HURRICANE WHILE IT PASSES NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
- HILARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
- HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KILOMETERS) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES (370 KILOMETERS).
- A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MILES PER HOUR (83 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) AND A GUST OF 67 MILES PER HOUR (108 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT ISLA CEDROS, MEXICO.
- THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MILLIBAR (28.91 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
KEY MESSAGES FOR HILARY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MILESATCDEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ44 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP4.SHTML.
RAINFALL:
- HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC, IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HILARY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, MOST INTENSE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
- DANGEROUS TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
- ACROSS PORTIONS OF OREGON AND IDAHO, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED, SOME SIGNIFICANT, FLASH FLOODING.
WIND:
- HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD TODAY.
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.
- WINDS COULD BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
- HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND WILL PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES POST TROPICAL.
STORM SURGE:
- A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS, OR EAST OF THE CENTER IF HILARY MAKES LANDFALL.
- THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
- COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
TORNADOES:
- A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR TODAY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MOJAVE DESERT, AND IMPERIAL VALLEY REGIONS.
SURF:
- LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HILARY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. - THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
- PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8:00 A.M. PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI