000
WTPZ34 KNHC 201754
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILARY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA, EP092023
11:00 A.M. PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME SUNDAY AUG 20 2023
- HILARY MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA…
- CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY…
SUMMARY OF 11:00 A.M. PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME, 18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME
INFORMATION
LOCATION, 29.9 NORTH 115.6 WEST
ABOUT 215 MILES, 340 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 65 MILES PER HOUR, 100 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT, NORTH NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 25 MILES PER HOUR, 41 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE,988 MILLIBAR, 29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WEST COAST FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO NORTHWESTWARD
- BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EAST COAST FROM LORETO NORTHWESTWARD
- MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF GUAYMAS
- CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER TO POINT MUGU
- CATALINA ISLAND
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.
- INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILARY.
- FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
- FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- AT 11:00 A.M. PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED ON THE COAST NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST
- HILARY IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MILES PER HOUR (41 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
- HILARY IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EVEN MORE AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
- ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF HILARY WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MILES PER HOUR (100 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
- WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, BUT HILARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
- TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES (390 KILOMETERS) FROM THE CENTER.
- AN OBSERVATION IN ROUND POTRERO, CALIFORNIA, RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MILES PER HOUR (64 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WITH A GUST TO 63 MILES PER HOUR (102 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
- AN OBSERVATION IN CRESTWOOD, CALIFORNIA, RECORDED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MILES PER HOUR (61 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) AND A GUST OF 53 MILES PER HOUR (85 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
- IN PLAYA EL PARAISO, MEXICO, AN OBSERVATION RECORDED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 36 MILES PER HOUR (57 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) AND A GUST OF 53 MILES PER HOUR (85 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
- THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MILLIBAR (29.18 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
KEY MESSAGES FOR HILARY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MILESATCDEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ44 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP4.SHTML.
RAINFALL:
- HILARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC, IS EXPECTED.
- INTENSE HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA LEADING TO DANGEROUS TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODING.
- ACROSS PORTIONS OF OREGON AND IDAHO, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCAL MAXIMA TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
- MORNING, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED, SOME SIGNIFICANT, FLASH FLOODING.
- A LIST OF RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS COMPILED BY THE NOAA WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS STORM CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/NFDSCC4.HTML
WIND:
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- WINDS COULD BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
- HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WELL INLAND AND WILL PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES POST TROPICAL.
STORM SURGE:
- A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS, OR EAST OF THE CENTER IF HILARY MAKES LANDFALL.
- THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
TORNADOES:
- A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WESTERN ARIZONA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH.
SURF:
- LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HILARY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
- THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2:00 P.M. PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI