192
WTNT35 KNHC 290257
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA, AL102023
10:00 P.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME MONDAY AUG 28 2023
- IDALIA LINGERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA…
- COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 10:00 P.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME,03:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME,
INFORMATION
LOCATION, 22.0 NORTH 85.0 WEST
ABOUT 10 MILES, 15 KILOMETERS NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 230 MILES, 370 KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 70 MILES PER HOUR, 110 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT,NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MILES PER HOUR, 13 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 983 MILLIBAR, 29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWESTWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- ENGLEWOOD NORTHWESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS, INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS, INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS, INCLUDING COZUMEL
- ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA
- DRY TORTUGAS FLORIDA
- CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY
- WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO MEXICO BEACH
- SEBASTIAN INLET, FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND, GEORGIA
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWESTWARD TO ENGLEWOOD, INCLUDING CHARLOTTE HARBOUR
MOUTH OF THE SAINT MARY’S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- ENGLEWOOD TO THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILESLE BRIDGE
ALTAMAHA SOUND NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
- A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
- A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
- A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
- FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
- THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.
- PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
- PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
- A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
- A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
- INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
- ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY.
- FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
- FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- AT 10:00 P.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (03:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST
- IDALIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MILES PER HOUR (13 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTH NORTHEAST MOTION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. - ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF IDALIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY, AND REACH THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MILES PER HOUR (110 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
- RAPID STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
- IDALIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME, AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
- TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KILOMETERS) FROM THE CENTER.
- AN OBSERVATION IN CABO DE SAN ANTONIO REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 78 MILES PER HOUR (126 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
- THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MILLIBAR (29.03 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
KEY MESSAGES FOR IDALIA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT45 KNHC,
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT5.SHTML
STORM SURGE:
- THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE.
- THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…
- AUCILLA RIVER, FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA, FLORIDA,8 TO 12 FT
- CHASSAHOWITZKA, FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER, FLORIDA,6 TO 9 FT
- OCHLOCKONEE RIVER, FLORIDA TO AUCILLA RIVER, FLORIDA,5 TO 8 FT
- ANCLOTE RIVER, FLORIDA TO MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY, FLORIDA,4 TO 7 FT
TAMPA BAY,4 TO 7 FT - MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY, FLORIDA TO ENGLEWOOD, FLORIDA,3 TO 5 FT
- ENGLEWOOD, FLORIDA TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FLORIDA,2 TO 4 FT
- CHARLOTTE HARBOR,2 TO 4 FT
- INDIAN PASS, FLORIDA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER, FLORIDA,3 TO 5 FT
- MOUTH OF THE SAINT MARY’S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE, SC,2 TO 4 FT
- CHOKOLOSKEE, FLORIDA TO EAST CAPE SABLE, FLORIDA,1 TO 3 FT
- FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE, FLORIDA TO MOUTH OF SAINT MARY’S RIVER,1 TO 3 FT
- INDIAN PASS TO MEXICO BEACH,1 TO 3 FT.
- FLORIDA KEYS,1 TO 2 FT
- THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES. - SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
- FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
- STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PINAR DEL RIO, CUBA.
- NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
WIND:
- HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS IN WESTERN CUBA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
- HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY
- LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DRY TORTUGAS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY AND WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ON TUESDAY.
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL:
IDALIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS:
WESTERN CUBA: 4 TO 7 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS: 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY NEAR LANDFALL IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.
- THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA.
- AREAS OF FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SURF:
- SWELLS GENERATED BY IDALIA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND EASTERN YUCATAN.
- THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
- THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TORNADOES:
- A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1:00 A.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4:00 A.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH