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    TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7

    ByNHC

    Aug 28, 2023

    ZCZC MILESATCPAT5 ALL
    TTAA:00 KNHC DDHHMM

    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA, AL102023
    4:00 A.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME MONDAY AUG 28 2023

    • IDALIA INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES CUBA…
    • LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA…

    SUMMARY OF 4:00 A.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME,09:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME

    INFORMATION

    LOCATION,20.1 NORTH 85.2 WEST
    ABOUT 125 MILES, 200 KILOMETERS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 65 MILES PER HOUR, 100 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT, NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MILES PER HOUR, 11 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 989 MILLIBAR, 29.21 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS

    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

    • PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

    • YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS, INCLUDING COZUMEL
    • ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA
    • DRY TORTUGAS FLORIDA

    A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

    • CHOKOLOSKEE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA, INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

    • ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA, INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

    • SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
    • LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILESLE BRIDGE
    • A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
      SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
      12 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
      RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
    • A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
    • FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
    • A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
    • A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
    • A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
    • INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
    • ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.
    • FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
    • FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

    • AT 4:00 A.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (09:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST
    • IDALIA IS┬áMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MILES PER HOUR (11 KILOMETERS PER HOUR), WITH A CONTINUED NORTHWESTARD MOTION BRINGING THE CENTER OF IDALIA NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY.
    • ON THE FORECAST TRACK, IDALIA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND TURN NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND REACH THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
    • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MILES PER HOUR 100 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
    • IDALIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE OVER NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
    • TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KILOMETERS) FROM THE CENTER.
    • THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MILLIBAR (29.21 INCHES).

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

    KEY MESSAGES FOR IDALIA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT45 KNHC, AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT5.SHTML

    STORM SURGE:
    THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE.
    THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

    • AUCILLA RIVER, FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA, FL,7 11 FT
    • CHASSAHOWITZKA, FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER, FL,6 9 FT
    • OCHLOCKONEE RIVER, FLORIDA TO AUCILLA RIVER, FL,4 7 FT
    • ANCLOTE RIVER, FLORIDA TO MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY, FL,4 7 FT
    • TAMPA BAY,4 7 FT
    • MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY, FLORIDA TO ENGLEWOOD, FL,3 5 FT
    • ENGLEWOOD, FLORIDA TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL,2 4 FT
    • CHARLOTTE HARBOR,2 4 FT
    • INDIAN PASS, FLORIDA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER, FL,2 4 FT
    • CHOKOLOSKEE, FLORIDA TO EAST CAPE SABLE, FL,1 3 FT
    • FLORIDA KEYS,1 2 FT

     

    1. THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
    2. SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
    3. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
    4. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PINAR DEL RIO, CUBA.
    5. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.

    WIND:

    • HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
    • WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY THIS MORNING, MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
    • PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
    • TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN CUBA THROUGH TODAY HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
    • TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

    RAINFALL:

    IDALIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL

    AMOUNTS:

    • PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN: ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES.
    • WESTERN CUBA: 4 TO 7 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
    • PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS: 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
    • ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY NEAR LANDFALL IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.

     

    • THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA.
    • AREAS OF FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

    SURF:

    • SWELLS GENERATED BY IDALIA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND EASTERN YUCATAN.
    • THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
      PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    NEXT ADVISORY

    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 7:00 A.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10:00 A.M. CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME.

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE

    By NHC