000
WTNT35 KNHC 301159
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDALIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA, AL102023
8:00 A.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME WEDNESDAY AUG 30 2023
- EYE OF IDALIA MOVING JUST INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST…
- CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE…
SUMMARY OF 8:00 A.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME, 12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME
INFORMATION
LOCATION, 29.9 NORTH 83.5 WEST
ABOUT 10 MILES, 20 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PERRY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 120 MILES PER HOUR, 195 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT, NORTH NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MILES PER HOUR, 30 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 950 MILLIBAR, 28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- ENGLEWOOD NORTHWESTARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA, INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
- SAINT CATHERINE’S SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWESTARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA, INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
- ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- BONITA BEACH NORTHWESTARD TO THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY
- WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO MEXICO BEACH
- SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
- PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- BONITA BEACH NORTHWESTARD TO ENGLEWOOD, INCLUDING CHARLOTTE HARBOR
- MOUTH OF THE SAINT MARY’S RIVER TO SAINT CATHERINE’S SOUND GEORGIA
- BEAUFORT INLET TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
- NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS NORTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
- MOUTH OF THE SAINT MARY’S RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
- EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
- A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
- PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
- A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
- FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
- THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.
- PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
- PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
- A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
- FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
- A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
- ADDITIONAL WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
- FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- AT 8:00 A.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (12:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), THE EYE OF HURRICANE IDALIA WAS LOCATED BY TALLAHASSEE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST.
- IDALIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MILES PER HOUR (30 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
- A NORTH NORTHASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH IDALIA’S CENTER FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATER TODAY.
- IDALIA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST NORTHAST, MOVING NEAR OR ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 120 MILES PER HOUR (195 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
- IDALIA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
- ALTHOUGH IDALIA WILL WEAKEN FURTHER NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND, IT IS LIKELY TO STILL BE A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA, AND NEAR THE COAST OF GEORGIA OR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY.
- IDALIA IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.
- HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KILOMETERS) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KILOMETERS).
- THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MILLIBAR (28.05 INCHES) BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA.
- WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND CONTINUE TO RISE RAPIDLY.
- A NOAA NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA, RECENTLY REPORTED A WATER LEVEL OF 6.2 FEET ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER, WHICH IS AN APPROXIMATION OF INUNDATION IN THAT AREA.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
KEY MESSAGES FOR IDALIA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT45 KNHC, AND ON THE WEB AT
STORM SURGE:
- THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE.
- THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…
- WAKULLA/JEFFERSON COUNTY, FLORIDA TO YANKEETOWN, FLORIDA, 12 TO 16 FEET
- OCHLOCKONEE RIVER, FLORIDA TO WAKULLA/JEFFERSON COUNTY, FLORIDA, 8 TO 12 FEET
- YANKEETOWN, FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA, FLORIDA, 7 TO 11 FEET
- CHASSAHOWITZKA, FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER, FLORIDA, 6 TO 9 FEET
- CARRABELLE, FLORIDA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER, FLORIDA, 5 TO 8 FEET
- ANCLOTE RIVER, FLORIDA TO MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY, FLORIDA, 4 TO 6 FEET
- TAMPA BAY, 4 TO 6 FEET
- INDIAN PASS, FLORIDA TO CARRABELLE, FLORIDA, 3 TO 5 FEET
- MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY, FLORIDA TO ENGLEWOOD, FLORIDA, 3 TO 5 FEET
- SAINT CATHERINES SOUND, GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SOUTH CAROLINA, 3 TO 5 FEET
- ENGLEWOOD, FLORIDA TO BONITA BEACH, FLORIDA, 2 TO 4 FEET
- BEAUFORT INLET, NORTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET, NORTH CAROLINA, 2 TO 4 FEET
- MOUTH OF THE SAINT MARY’S RIVER TO SAINT CATHERINES SOUND, GA, 2 TO 4 FEET
- CHARLOTTE HARBOR, 2 TO 4 FEET
- NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS, 2 TO 4 FEET
- PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS, 2 TO 4 FEET
- FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE, FLORIDA TO MOUTH OF THE SAINT MARY’S RIVER, 1 TO 3 FEET
- MEXICO BEACH, FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS, FLORIDA, 1 TO 3 FEET
- BONITA BEACH, FLORIDA TO EAST CAPE SABLE, FLORIDA, 1 TO 3 FEET
- SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SOUTH CAROLINA TO BEAUFORT INLET, NORTH CAROLINA, 1 TO 3 FEET
- OCRACOKE INLET, NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK, NORTH CAROLINA, 1 TO 3 FEET
- THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
- SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
- FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
WIND:
- HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA AND WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATER TODAY.
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF AND WEST COASTS.
- HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
- TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND WILL SPREAD INTO GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
RAINFALL:
- IDALIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA UP TO 12 INCHES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA, AND THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THURSDAY.
- THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH, URBAN, AND MODERATE RIVER FLOODING, WITH CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS.
SURF:
- SWELLS GENERATED BY IDALIA ARE AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA, AND WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TODAY.
- THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
- PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TORNADOES:
- A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WITH THE TORNADO RISK SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11:00 A.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME.
$$
FORECASTER BERG