TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20

000
WTNT35 KNHC 311459
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA, AL102023
11:00 A.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME THURSDAY AUG 31 2023

• CENTER OF IDALIA MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST…
• STRONG WINDS AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…

SUMMARY OF 11:00 A.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME, 15:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME

INFORMATION

LOCATION, 33.6 NORTH, 75.8 WEST
ABOUT 85 MILES, 135 KILOMETERS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 60 MILES PER HOUR, 95 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT, E OR 90 DEGREES AT 20 MILES PER HOUR, 31 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 992 MILLIBAR, 29.30 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF CAPE FEAR,
NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

• CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
• PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

• BEAUFORT INLET TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
• NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS NORTH CAROLINA

1. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
2. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
   FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
3. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDALIA.
4. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

• AT 11:00 A.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (15:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST
• IDALIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 20 MILES PER HOUR (31 KILOMETERS PER HOUR), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
• A TURN TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
• ON THE FORECAST TRACK, IDALIA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND APPROACH BERMUDA OVER THE WEEKEND.
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MILES PER HOUR (95 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
• LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
• IDALIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND.
• TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES (335 KILOMETERS) FROM THE CENTER.
• A STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT, NORTH CAROLINA, RECENTLY MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 51 MILES PER HOUR (81 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) AND A GUST TO 61 MILES PER HOUR (98 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
• A SUSTAINED WIND OF 50 MILES PER HOUR (80 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) AND A GUST TO 64 MILES PER HOUR (104 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WERE REPORTED AT FRISCO WOODS ON THE OUTER BANKS.
• THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MILLIBAR (29.30 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

KEY MESSAGES FOR IDALIA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT45 KNHC, AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT5.SHTML

STORM SURGE:

1. THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE.
2. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

• BEAUFORT INLET, NORTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET, NORTH CAROLINA, 2 TO 4 FEET
• NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS, 2 TO 4 FEET
• PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS, 2 TO 4 FEET
• OCRACOKE INLET, NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK, NORTH CAROLINA, 1 TO 3 FEET
• CAPE FEAR, NORTH CAROLINA TO BEAUFORT INLET, NORTH CAROLINA, 1 TO 3 FEET

1. THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.
2. SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
3. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

WIND:

• TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL:

1. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
2. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF .50 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
   THIS RAINFALL MAY COMPOUND ANY ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS.

SURF:

• SWELLS GENERATED BY IDALIA ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY.
• SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
• PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 2:00 P.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5:00 P.M. EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER BERG