HURRICANE LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 34

000
WTNT33 KNHC 132043
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA, AL132023
5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME WEDNESDAY SEP 13 2023

• HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MUCH OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND…
• STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…

SUMMARY OF 5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME,21:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME

INFORMATION

LOCATION, 27.4 NORTH, 67.6 WEST
ABOUT 380 MILES, 610 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 965 MILES, 1550 KILOMETERS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 105 MILES PER HOUR, 165 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT,NNORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MILES PER HOUR, 17 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 952 MILLIBAR, 28.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

• A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN EAST MAINE FROM STONINGTON TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER.
• A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE AREA OF COASTAL NEWEST ENGLAND FROM WATCH HILL, RHODE ISLAND TO STONINGTON, MAINE, INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND, MARTHA’S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
• A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

• STONINGTON, MAINE TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

• BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

• WATCH HILL, RHODEISLAND TO STONINGTON, MAINE
• BLOCK ISLAND
• MARTHA’S VINEYARD
• NANTUCKET

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

• CAPE COD BAY
• NANTUCKET

1. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
2. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
3. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
5. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
6. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
7. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LEE.
8. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
9. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

• AT 5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (21:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST
• LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MILES PER HOUR (17 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
• A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
• ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LEE WILL PASS WEST OF BERMUDA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN APPROACH THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MILES PER HOUR (165 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
• SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER, LEE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE INTO THE WEEKEND.
• HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KILOMETERS) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES (425 KILOMETERS).
• THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MILLIBAR (28.12 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

KEY MESSAGES FOR LEE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT43 KNHC AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT3.SHTML

WIND:

• TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA STARTING EARLY THURSDAY.
• HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF DOWN EAST MAINE ON SATURDAY.
• TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEWEST ENGLAND WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE:

• THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE.
• THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

1. CHATHAM, MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH, MASSACHUSETTS, 2 TO 4 FT
2. CAPE COD BAY,2 TO 4 FT
3. NANTUCKET,2 TO 4 FT
4. SAGAMORE BEACH, MASSACHUSETTS TO BORDER OF US/CANADA,1 TO 3 FT
5. BOSTON HARBOR,1 TO 3 FT
6. FLUSHING, NEW YORK TO CHATHAM, MASSACHUSETTS,1 TO 3 FT
7. MONTAUK POINT, NEW YORK TO FLUSHING, NY,1 TO 3 FT
8. LONG ISLAND SOUND,1 TO 3 FT
9. MARTHA’S VINEYARD,1 TO 3 FT
10. ROCKAWAY INLET, NEW YORK TO MONTAUK POINT, NY,1 TO 2 FT

• THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
• SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
• FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

SURF:

• SWELLS GENERATED BY LEE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND ARE BEGINNING TO REACH ATLANTIC CANADA.
• THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL:

• OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM LEE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, OR 25 TO 50 MILESLLIMETERS, ACROSS BERMUDA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
• FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES, OR 25 TO 100 MILLIMETERS, ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEWEST ENGLAND INTO PORTIONS OF NEWEST BRUN SOUTHWESTICK AND NOVA SCOTIA.
• THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NEXT ADVISORY

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI