HURRICANE LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 38

839
WTNT33 KNHC 142047
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FLORIDA, AL132023
5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME THURSDAY SEP 14 2023

• TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND…
• DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…

SUMMARY OF 5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME,21:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME

INFORMATION

LOCATION, 31.7 NORTH 68.3 WEST
ABOUT 210 MILES,  335 KILOMETERS WEST OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 665 MILES, 1065 KILOMETERS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS, 85 MILES PER HOUR, 140 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT,NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MILES PER HOUR, 24 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE, 957 MILLIBAR, 28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

• THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWESTARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER.
• THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO WESTPORT.
• THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WEST OF WESTPORT, MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
• THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
  SEE COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
• THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA TO POINT TUPPER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

• STONINGTON, MAINE TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER
• NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO POINT LEPREAU,
• INCLUDING GRAND MANAN ISLAND
  NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEDWAY HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

• BERMUDA
• WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS NORTHWESTARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER
• MARTHA’S VINEYARD
• NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

• NEW BRUN SOUTHWESTICK FROM NORTH OF POINT LEPREAU TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA SOUTHEAST COAST FROM NORTH OF MEDWAY HARBOUR TO POINT TUPPER

1. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
2. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
3. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
4. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
5. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LEE.
6. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
7. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

• AT 5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (21:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST
• LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MILES PER HOUR (24 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
• A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
• ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LEE WILL PASS WEST OF BERMUDA THROUGH THIS EVENING, APPROACH THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MILES PER HOUR (140 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
• LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
• SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT LEE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AND DANGEROUS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
• LEE IS A LARGE HURRICANE.
• HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KILOMETERS) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES (555 KILOMETERS).
• A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MILES PER HOUR (65 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WITH A GUST TO 52 MILES PER HOUR (83 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE L.F. WADE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON BERMUDA.
• NOAA BUOY 41048 LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES (120 KILOMETERS) WEST OF THE CENTER OF LEE HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK ONE MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 67 MILES PER HOUR (108 KILOMETERS PER HOUR) AND A GUST TO 87 MILES PER HOUR (141 KILOMETERS PER HOUR).
• THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MILLIBAR (28.26 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

KEY MESSAGES FOR LEE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT43 KNHC AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT3.SHTML

WIND:

• TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
• HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREAS IN DOWN EAST MAINE AND IN ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY.
• TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
• TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN ATLANTIC CANADA BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE:

• THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE.
• THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

1. FLUSHING, NEW YORK TO U.S./CANADA BORDER, 1 TO 3 FT
2. LONG ISLAND SOUND, 1 TO 3 FT
3. CAPE COD, 1 TO 3 FT
4. MARTHA’S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET, 1 TO 3 FT
5. BOSTON HARBOR, 1 TO 3 FT
6. ROCKAWAY INLET, NEW YORK TO MONTAUK POINT, NEW YORK, 1 TO 2 FT

• THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
• SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
• FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
• A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING WITHIN THE WIND WATCH AREAS IN ATLANTIC CANADA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
• NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF:

• SWELLS GENERATED BY LEE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND ATLANTIC CANADA.
• THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
• PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL:

• OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM LEE MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, OR 25 TO 50 MILLIMETERS, ACROSS BERMUDA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
• FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES, OR 25 TO 100 MILLIMETERS, ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO PORTIONS OF NEW BRUN SOUTHWESTICK AND NOVA SCOTIA.
• THIS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

NEXT ADVISORY

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN