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The Spiderweb & The Lion: Subversive Infiltration And US National Security

Authored by Andy Thaxton via RealClearWire,

Over a decade ago, when I was working on force protection issues for Navy air logistics missions, the threat of drone attacks was just beginning to be seriously discussed. We kicked around contingencies and “what ifs,” but those discussions were largely in the background of mission planning. Over the course of the past ten years however, that threat has exploded to the forefront of the military operational planning world and has presented something altogether new in modern warfare.

In the early hours of June 1, 2025, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) executed Operation Spiderweb, an audacious drone assault on Russian airfields that destroyed or damaged a number of Russia’s most prized aircraft, including possibly two A-50 early-warning planes and as many as a dozen strategic bombers. Drones, smuggled into Russia over 18 months and concealed in remote-controlled containers, were launched from within Russian territory, catching Moscow’s defenses off guard.

Just days later, on June 13, 2025, Israel’s Mossad orchestrated a similarly bold strike, dubbed Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Mossad agents, operating covertly within Iran, established drone bases near Tehran and smuggled precision weapons to dismantle air defenses and eliminate key figures, including Revolutionary Guards commanders and at least one senior nuclear scientist. Allow me to emphasize, the drone attacks came from within Russia and from within Iran.

These operations quite possibly signal a new era of warfare: patient, subversive infiltration by committed adversaries willing to play the long game.

The United States—due to years of lax borders and insufficient oversight of foreign land purchases—is alarmingly vulnerable to such tactics, especially from a strategic rival like China, whose land acquisitions near U.S. military bases pose a clear risk.

Asymmetric Warfare Redefined?

Even for those who pay little attention to such things, it is hard to miss that Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb and Israel’s Rising Lion represent a paradigm shift in modern conflict. Rather than relying on conventional military power, both operations leveraged covert infiltration, advanced—though not restricted—technology, and strategic patience to strike deep within enemy territory. Ukraine’s drones, assembled and concealed over months, targeted a multi-billion-dollar air fleet with low-cost, commercially adapted unmanned systems. The SBU’s operation—smuggling drones across borders and hiding them in plain sight—demonstrated how irregular tactics can cripple a nation’s strategic power.

Similarly, Mossad spent (likely) years infiltrating Iran to set up drone bases and move munitions into position, striking at the heart of Tehran’s nuclear program and eliminating critical personnel. These operations reveal the growing effectiveness of a new asymmetric warfare, where smaller actors, with a little creativity, can exploit the vulnerabilities of larger adversaries, potentially for dimes on the dollar. Drones costing mere thousands, or even less, can now challenge systems worth billions. To complicate things further, drones can be deployed en masse. Online videos of Chinese drone light shows are something to see—single controllers managing 10,000 or more small drones in remarkable displays of precision and agility. It’s not hard to imagine what creative military planners could come up with using…

These Are The Most Stolen Cars In Every US State

Car theft is a widespread issue, driven by factors like demand for parts and organized criminal activity.

In 2024, over 850,000 vehicles were stolen across the U.S., averaging one every 37 seconds.

To see which cars are being targeted the most, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu visualized the most stolen car model in every state.

Data & Discussion

The data for this visualization comes from FinanceBuzz, which reviewed 2024 auto-theft insurance claims filed with the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB).

State
Make and Model
Vehicles Stolen
Alabama
Toyota Camry
219
Alaska
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
61
Arizona
Hyundai Elantra
649
Arkansas
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
178
California
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
6248
Colorado
Hyundai Elantra
998
Connecticut
Hyundai Elantra
617
Delaware
Hyundai Elantra
73
Florida
Hyundai Elantra
1074
Georgia
Hyundai Elantra
750
Hawaii
Kia Soul
75
Idaho
Ford F150 Series
37
Illinois
Jeep Grand Cherokee
1615
Indiana
Hyundai Elantra
475
Iowa
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
93
Kansas
Hyundai Elantra
253
Kentucky
Hyundai Sonata
419
Louisiana
Hyundai Elantra
360
Maine
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
42
Maryland
Hyundai Elantra
1966
Massachusetts
Honda Accord/Hyundai Elantra (tie)
241
Michigan
Jeep Grand Cherokee
1507
Minnesota
Hyundai Elantra
652
Mississippi
Ford F150 Series
172
Missouri
Hyundai Elantra
1074
Montana
Ford F150 Series
60
Nebraska
Hyundai Elantra
245
Nevada
Hyundai Elantra
832
New Hampshire
GMC Savana
19
New Jersey
Honda Accord
755
New Mexico
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
335
New York
Honda CR-V
1776
North Carolina
Hyundai Elantra
1094
North Dakota
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
46
Ohio
Hyundai Elantra
1351
Oklahoma
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
293
Oregon
Honda Civic
435
Pennsylvania
Hyundai Elantra
1081
Rhode Island
Honda Accord
60
South Carolina
Honda Accord
331
South Dakota
Ford F150 Series
76
Tennessee
Nissan Maxima
1501
Texas
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
6453
Utah
Honda Civic
120
Vermont
Subaru Forester
25
Virginia
Hyundai Elantra
550
Washington
Hyundai Elantra
1379
West Virginia
Ford F150 Series
50
Wisconsin
Hyundai Elantra
515
Wyoming
Ford F150 Series
19
Hyundai and Kia’s Missing Security Feature

The most common model in this dataset is the Hyundai Elantra, which was the most stolen car in 20 different states. The Hyundai Sonata (Kentucky) and Kia Soul (Hawaii) also made an appearance.

A major reason for this trend is that many Hyundai and Kia models produced between 2011 and 2021 lack electronic engine immobilizers—basic anti-theft tech now standard in most vehicles.

This omission made it easier for thieves to exploit vulnerabilities, especially after viral social media videos demonstrated how to steal these cars using simple tools.

Pickup Popularity in the Heartland

Full-size pickups remain prime targets in rural and border states.

The Chevrolet Silverado 1500 leads theft tallies in Texas, California, and seven additional states, while Ford’s F-150 heads the list in six others. Both models are some of the most popular vehicles sold in the country, so it makes sense they’re also frequently stolen.

High resale demand for parts, coupled with interchangeable components across model years, keeps older trucks attractive to thieves—even as new anti-theft tech rolls out.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out How Tariffs Will Impact U.S. Car Prices on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/04/2025 – 22:00…

No Love Letters

By Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank

Financial markets got treated with a surprisingly strong June employment gain in the US yesterday, JOLTing 10y Treasury yields nearly 7bp higher and even more so at the front-end of the curve. Indeed, the market’s change of heart saw the implied probability of a 25bp cut in July fall from 25% to around 5%. That’s back to tail-risk area. European rates – briefly interjected by the US data – remained on a downward path, as recent jawboning from ECB officials on the concerns of a EURUSD exchange rate heading and potentially exceeding the 1.20 level has revived expectations that the ECB could still cut rates after the summer, should such a scenario materialize.

European bond yields also fell partly due to an FT report that the EU will propose a permanent “Joint Debt Instrument for Crisis” in mid-July, to be included in the 2028 budget. While joint borrowing was used during COVID-19 and the EU earlier this year adopted a regulation formally establishing the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument, which will see the EU raise €150bn for investment in large-scale defence, making it permanent—especially with grants—would be a major step requiring unanimous approval. Countries like Germany oppose more joint debt, but growing defence and infrastructure needs may push the EU toward compromise, as seen during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, President Trump once again delivered on his promise to “act”, as the One Big and Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) got through Congress with a 218-214 vote. As Philip Marey, our US strategist, explains, the act is supposed to include all Trump’s promises on fiscal policy in his second term. The bill extends the expiring 2017 TCJA income tax cuts to avoid a fiscal cliff and introduces new deductions for tips, overtime, and Social Security taxes. It increases defence and immigration spending, while offsetting costs through cuts to Democratic priorities. These include ending EV tax credits, imposing tariffs on foreign-heavy renewable energy projects, and reducing federal funding for SNAP and Medicaid. States are expected to cover the shortfall. Additionally, the debt ceiling will be raised at Trump’s request, despite opposition from fiscal conservatives.

On balance, budget deficits are projected to rise by $3.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. But this is not how the proponents of the Bill are trying to sell it! On July 1, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the Senate-passed bill would reduce deficits by $0.4 trillion, based on a baseline that assumes the extension of Trump-era tax cuts (TCJA). However, this assumption deviates from the CBO’s 2017 scoring, which expected those tax cuts to expire. By using this altered baseline, the bill appears fiscally responsible, but in reality, it hides the true cost. Or, as Philip puts it: “With a simple shift-in-accounting trick, $3.8 trillion has disappeared into a black hole of time inconsistency.”
More importantly, as Philip notes, the frontloading of tax cuts and spending cut delays will cause a fiscal…

Lots Of Speculation Is Swirling Around The Sumy Front

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Ukraine claims that Russia is gearing up for a large-scale offensive there, a Russian security source denied any such plans, while the US is closely monitoring the situation…

Trump told the media earlier in the week that “We’ll see what happens. I’m watching it very closely” when asked about reports that Russia is gearing up for a large-scale offensive in Ukraine’s Sumy Region. This follows the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) report alleging that Russia has assembled 50,000 troops in preparation for that. A Russian security source denied such plans in comments to TASS, however, and instead described the aforesaid claims as part of a GUR disinfo campaign to fearmonger about Russia.

They also put forth the hypothesis that GUR wants to discredit the Defense Ministry in general and Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky in particular while also claiming that Ukraine also does indeed have quite a few border fortifications there unlike what the WSJ wrote. Whatever the truth may be, what’s known for sure is that Sumy Region falls within the “buffer zone” that Putin spoke about carving out in late May, the strategy of which was analyzed here at the time.

The larger context concerns the realization that “The Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break”. Absent any serious efforts by Trump to coerce Zelensky into the concessions that Putin demands for peace, Russia might thus continue resorting to brute force to ensure its security interests, especially given the window of opportunity that reportedly just opened up. This is connected to Politico’s recent report about the Pentagon halting some promised munitions to Ukraine.

According to their sources, this includes “missiles for Patriot air defense systems, precision artillery rounds, Hellfire and other missiles that Ukraine launches from its F-16 fighters and drones.” The decision was reportedly made in early June, so shortly before Israel launched its sneak attack against Iran on day 61 of Trump’s 60-day deadline for agreeing to a new nuclear deal. The timing consequently suggests that this aid that was promised to Ukraine during the Biden era might have instead been redirected to Israel.

This makes sense seeing as how Trump knew about Bibi’s plans ahead of time and would have likely ordered the Pentagon to prepare for the possibility of a large-scale conflict erupting in the aftermath. The US’ stockpiles were already running low even before the 12-day war that followed, in which the US directly participated by bombing three Iranian nuclear facilities, so it was inevitable in hindsight that the US’ prioritization of Israel’s security needs would come at Ukraine’s expense.

All of this sets the stage for the large-scale offensive that Ukraine claims that Russia is gearing up for, Russia denies, and the US is closely monitoring just in case.

On the one hand, Russia could try to take advantage of the reduction in US military aid to Ukraine to push its buffer zone deeper into Sumy Region.

On the other hand, it might not be the walk in the park that the WSJ claimed, and…

The 1775 Two Step That Led To American Independence

Authored by Jim Bovard

As Americans prepare to celebrate the 249th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, we should also toast the 250th anniversary of a savvy political two-step that paved the way to formally breaking with Britain the following year.

“We, your Majesty’s faithful subjects…” began the petition beseeching reconciliation with King George from the Second Continental Congress on July 5, 1775.  That offering became known as the Olive Branch Petition.  The following day, Congress issued its Declaration of the Causes and Necessity of Taking Up Arms, explaining why hostile British troops would henceforth be gunned down on the battlefields of America.

Were the petition and the Declaration on Taking Up Arms sent to England on the same ship?  If so, was a sticker attached to the Olive Branch petition saying, “Open me first”?  The petitioners “entreat your Majesty’s gracious attention to this our humble petition,” stressed their “utmost deference for your Majesty,” boasted that “our breasts retain too tender a regard for the kingdom from which we derive our origin,” and stressed that they remained “faithful subjects” to “our Mother country.”

Even tying a red ribbon around that petition would not have helped. King George III refused to accept it or even to read it. The king’s obstinacy helped spur the rarely remembered provision of the First Amendment of the Bill of Rights, the right “to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

That Olive Branch petition was fiercely controversial within Congress. Virginia delegate Benjamin Harrison declared, “There is but one word in the paper of which I approve, and that is the word, ‘Congress.’” Harrison was later elected governor of Virginia; his son and great grandson both became U.S. presidents. The Olive Branch petition passed as one last attempt at reconciliation with the British monarch in part because many Americans believed that the king had been misled by his corrupt or devious advisors. This was the 1700s version of the Russian folk saying “if only the Czar knew about all the starving peasants!”

King George’s response to the petition was shaped in part by the British military disaster at Bunker Hill, when patriot sharpshooters killed or wounded every British officer on the battlefield amidst a vast carnage inflicted. That Pyrrhic victory spooked the British generals but the lesson was not learned until far too late in London. Two days after the Olive Branch petition was delivered to British officials in London, the British government formally labeled the American colonies in a state of “open and avowed rebellion” and called for “utmost endeavours to withstand and suppress such rebellion.” The subsequent vast increase in British aggression swayed hundreds of thousands of Americans’ minds in favor of independence at any cost.

The July 6 Declaration, written by Thomas Jefferson and John Dickinson, castigated “the legislature of Great Britain” which “attempted to effect their cruel and impolitic purpose of enslaving these colonies by violence.”  Americans felt that the British legislature had been warring on them practically since the day the French and…

Federal Officials Warn Of ‘Lone Wolf’ Terror Threats On July 4, NY Governor Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has confirmed that federal officials informed her about a possible terrorist threat ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday.

“Our federal partners reiterated yesterday that lone wolf actors remain the greatest potential threat including during the upcoming July 4th holiday,” Hochul said in a July 2 statement, without providing the names of the federal agencies or any specific details about potential plots.

The governor said state law enforcement officials are “in an increased alert posture following the recent conflict in the Middle East” and that under her direction, “State Police will have an increased presence at large events throughout the state” during the holiday.

“And we will be closely coordinating with local and federal law enforcement partners to ensure the safety of all involved,” she said.

“National Guard personnel also remain deployed at major transportation hubs, as well as at key bridges and tunnels within New York City.

“We are also actively monitoring social media activity and continue to be on high alert for any cyberthreats.”

While Hochul did not elaborate, ABC News and other outlets, citing an internal bulletin released by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), reported that those agencies believe there is an elevated threat in New York and California during Independence Day.

The Epoch Times contacted both DHS and the FBI for comment on Thursday but did not receive a response by publication time.

Earlier this week, the FBI and other agencies sent a warning that Iranian regime-linked groups could launch cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure, although they did not issue any public warnings about terrorist attacks linked to Iran.

“Defense Industrial Base companies, particularly those possessing holdings or relationships with Israeli research and defense firms, are at increased risk,” the agencies stated in the warning, issued by the FBI, the National Security Agency, the Department of Defense Cyber Crime Center, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

That comes roughly two weeks after the United States bombed multiple Iranian nuclear enrichment sites following days of back-and-forth strikes carried out by both Iran and Israel. Iran later confirmed that several of its top military officials and scientists were killed in the Israeli strikes.

For the past year and a half, the FBI has issued warnings about terrorist attacks inside the United States inspired by the Israel–Hamas conflict, which was sparked by a Hamas terrorist attack on Oct. 7, 2023, that left more than 1,200 civilians dead.

About a month ago, the FBI warned that there is an elevated terrorism threat to the Jewish community in the United States in light of a shooting that left two Israeli Embassy staffers dead in Washington and an arson attack in Boulder, Colorado, in recent months. An 82-year-old woman who was injured during the Boulder firebombing incident, which occurred in June, died on Monday, prosecutors said.

Mohamed Soliman, the suspect in the Boulder attack, allegedly yelled “Free Palestine” during the incident, federal officials said.

In the…