Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 072032
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  42.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  42.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  41.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.6N  43.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.2N  45.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N  46.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.6N  47.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.3N  48.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N  49.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.3N  49.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N  46.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  42.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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