Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 212042
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 102.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.9N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 113.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.0N 120.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  55SE  45SW  65NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  45SW  55NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 102.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER DELGADO/PAPIN


Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION


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