In the continuation of well-established trend observed across Western democracies, yet another populist, nationalist, right-wing candidate has posted an election result that far exceeded what polls indicated he was capable of. The latest upset took place in Romania on Sunday, and it has positioned a NATO critic and Ukraine war skeptic to potentially take over the country’s presidency.  

With 99% of ballots tallied, populist Calin Georgescu led all 13 candidates with 23% of votes, edging the Save Romania Union Party’s Elena Lasconi and Prime Minister and Social Democratic Party member Marcel Ciolacu — who had 19.17% and 19.16%, respectively. Another right-winger — the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians’ George Simion — placed fourth with 13.87%. That sets the NATO- and EU-member country up for a second-round vote on Dec. 8 against either Lasconi or Ciolacu; Simion has already thrown his support behind Georgescu.  

“The 35-years-long economic uncertainty imposed on the Romanian people became uncertainty for the political parties today,” said Georgescu, who took the poll-outperformance phenomenon to a whole new level: An October poll showed him with only 0.4% support, and a November survey had him racking up just 5.4%. 

The outcome will be highly unwelcome to the Western establishment: Georgescu pledged to restore Romanian sovereignty and put an end to what he characterizes as subservience to NATO and the EU. He has taken a hard line against the presence of NATO’s missile defense system that’s based in Deveselu, southern Romania, calling it a “shame of diplomacy” that is more confrontational than peace-promoting. 

He has also pushed for Romania to pursue a non-interventionist policy in the Ukraine war, and said US arms-makers were manipulating the conflict. Since Russia’s invasion, Romania has facilitated Ukrainian grain exports and furnished military assistance including the donation of a Patriot missile battery.  

If EU bureaucrats thought Viktor Orbán was a problem for them and their funding for the proxy war in Ukraine, wait until they meet Romania’s future president, Călin Georgescu.

Zelensky’s worshippers hate this man!
pic.twitter.com/KzvGss1RSn

— Gabe (@GabeZZOZZ) November 25, 2024

As in the US election, a large portion of the Romanian electorate may have been fed up with resources dedicated to foreign refugees and foreign wars rather than the country’s own citizens. According to the X account GeoInsider, “In one widely shared clip, Georgescu highlight[ed]…striking disparities: Romania pays a monthly allowance of 3,700 lei to the children of Ukrainian refugees, compared to just 248 lei for Romanian children.” 

“For the unjust, for the humiliated, for those who feel they do not matter and actually matter the most … the vote is a prayer for the nation,” the 62-year-old Georgescu said via Facebook after casting his vote. Georgescu has a doctorate in soil science and previously held various roles in the country’s environmental ministry, and represented Romania as a member of the UN’s Environmental Program. In addition to his broad theme of restoring Romanian sovereignty, he also ran on countering price inflation, addressing Romania’s worst-in-EU poverty rate, supporting farmers and decreasing the country’s reliance on imports. 

Georgescu’s result was all the more surprising given he didn’t run as a member of any political party, and used social media platform TikTok as the principal mechanism of his campaign. Racking up 1.6 million likes, his account showed him going to church, running, practicing judo, and being interviewed by podcasters. TikTok’s centrality to his highly unorthodox campaign prompted some howling by people who didn’t like the outcome: 

What happened today in Romania must be a wake-up call for the entire West that TikTok needs to be banned as soon as possible! I’ve been saying this for over five years: TikTok is a tool of the China-Russia coalition to stage coups in any Western country!

— Alin Vlad (@AlinStVlad) November 24, 2024

…and, as is the case whenever a right-wing nationalist wins these days, people are blaming RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA! 

Panic in Romania today as a pro-russian candidate that no one’s ever heard of, with no visible means of funding wins first-round presidential elections after only registering on October 1st.

Romanians and Romanian media are considering it a Russian attack. https://t.co/9G5XZHxhC8 pic.twitter.com/MfjtioNOIq

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) November 25, 2024

Gg Romania… you have been conquered by Russia without even being in an open war with them… The Russian TikTok trolls have managed to influence the votes of almost 23% of the population…

This is why education matters. This is why being informed from the correct sources… pic.twitter.com/hepO2mZHVr

— Larisa Kralik ⭕️ Artoons-Design (@ArtoonsDesign) November 25, 2024

So what I’m seeing is Russia backed a Hitler in the Romanian elections and he came in first place in the first round.

— A. Bartaway🇺🇦❤️✊✌️ (@Bartaway) November 25, 2024

After this extreme pro-russian comes from nowhere tonight to win the first-round Romanian Presidential election, a literal Nazi that no one has ever heard of, a quote from a friend of mine in Romania, who is as shocked as the rest of the country.

It looks like russians have… pic.twitter.com/LwI1eJqu2f

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) November 24, 2024

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via AntiWar.com,

According to the New York Times, US and European officials have discussed a range of options they believe will deter Russia from taking more Ukrainian territory, including providing Kiev with nuclear weapons. The outlet reports that Western officials believe the Kremlin will not significantly escalate the war before Donald Trump is sworn in as President in January.

Following the election of Trump earlier this month, the US and its NATO allies began taking steps to rush weapons to Ukraine and give Kiev the ability to strike targets inside Russian territory with long-range weapons.

American officials who were briefed on the intelligence community’s assessments told the Times that weapons will not alter the challenging situation that Kiev is currently facing. “US spy agencies have assessed that speeding up the provisions of weapons, ammunition and matériel for Ukraine will do little to change the course of the war in the short term,” the Times reports.

Desperate to bolster Ukraine’s standing in the war before the transition of power on January 20, the Biden administration is looking at a range of serious escalations. “US and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient to strike a punishing blow if Russia violates a cease-fire.”

The article continues, “Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union.”

According to some officials who spoke with the Times, the administration believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t significantly escalate the war until Trump returns to the Oval Office.

“But the escalation risk of allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with US-supplied weaponry has diminished with the election of Mr. Trump,” the report says, adding, “Biden administration officials believe, calculating that Putin of Russia knows he has to wait only two months for the new administration.”

That assessment is based on the belief that Trump and his incoming Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, will take a more favorable stance on Russia. However, Trump proved to be a Russia-hawk during his first administration by ramping up sanctions on Moscow, providing lethal arms to Ukraine, and expelling a large number of Russian diplomats from the US.

In September, Putin said he preferred Vice President Kamala Harris to win the White House. “Trump has imposed as many sanctions on Russia as any president has ever imposed before, and if Harris is doing well, perhaps she will refrain from such actions,” he explained.

US officials actually discussed a nuclear option, via the NY Times report:

Much of the American political class has cast Trump and Gabbard as agents of Russia. However, extensive investigations into Trump’s ties to the Kremlin have come up empty. Additionally, the Times reported last week that there was no evidence Gabbard was in any way an asset of Putin.