Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory
000
WTNT35 KNHC 122355
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami Florida AL052024
8:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time Mon Aug 12 2024
- ERNESTO LIKELY TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
SUMMARY OF 8:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time 00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 16.0 NORTH 58.5 WEST
ABOUT 230 MILES, 370 KILOMETERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 530 MILES, 850 KILOMETERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 MILES PER HOUR, 65 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT WEST, OR 270 DEGREES AT 28 MILES PER HOUR, 44 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MILLIBAR, 29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
- Saint Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
- Guadeloupe
- Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
- Sint Maarten
- British Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- Puerto Rico
- Vieques
- Culebra
- A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
- Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
- For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
- For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 8:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time (00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 58.5 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the west near 28 Miles Per Hour, (44 Kilometers Per Hour).
- A westward to west northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.
- On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.
- Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 40 Miles Per Hour, (65 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.
- Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 Kilometers) from the center.
- The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
RAINFALL:
- Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands.
- For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
- For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
- Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
- Windward Islands 1 to 4 inches
- Eastern Hispaniola 2 to 4 inches
WIND:
- Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday.
- Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.
STORM SURGE:
- A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including Saint Thomas, St. John, and Saint Croix.
- A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands.
- Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
- Next complete advisory at 11:00 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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