Science

Iran Lacks The Leverage For A Fair Deal With The US

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

It’ll therefore either have to accept a lopsided one or prepare for a major war that it might lose.

Iranian-US tensions are boiling after Trump threatened to bomb Iran following its rejection of direct talks over a new nuclear deal. He also ordered the Pentagon to move six B-2 stealth bombers, which CNN assessed to be a full 30% of the US’ stealth bomber fleet, to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. The Iranian Supreme Leader responded by promising strong retaliation if the US attacks while one of his chief advisors warned that their country would then have “no choice” but to build nukes if that happens.

Although the US Intelligence Community’s latest Annual Threat Assessment claimed that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon”, there have been long-standing concerns that it could quickly do so if the decision is made due to its nuclear program allegedly have a rapid breakout potential. This makes it no different in principle than Japan’s, which could begin churning out nukes in a matter of months, but neither the US nor its regional allies consider Japan to be a threat, unlike how they view Iran.

The US’ renewed bombing campaign against Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen might have been partially intended to send a message to the Islamic Republic aimed at getting it to enter direct talks over this issue by signaling that Trump 2.0 does indeed have the political will to initiate military action if it refuses. Despite Iran’s recent rejection of his demand, Trump might still hold off on this for now due to the likelihood that Iran could inflict unacceptable retaliatory damage to the US’ regional bases and allies.

Furthermore, diplomacy hasn’t yet been exhausted since Iran didn’t reject indirect talks of the kind that Russia offered to mediate after reportedly being asked by the US to do so, which was discussed here. Therefore, it would be premature for the US to seriously consider bombing Iran at this time, yet that option isn’t off the table if indirect talks fail to reach a deal. Iran lacks the leverage for a fair deal with the US, however, so it’ll either have to accept a lopsided one or prepare for a major war that it might lose.

Iran is a proud civilization-state that’s loath to subordinate itself to anyone, hence the difficulty in getting it to agree to drastic curbs on its nuclear energy program that would enshrine its status as a second-class country in this regard, all while abandoning any chance of nuclear weapons in the future. From Iran’s perspective, this could embolden Israel into one day launching a large-scale conventional or even nuclear war against it, which Iran believes has only hitherto been deterred by dangling this Damocles’ sword.

That said, while Iran could inflict unacceptable retaliatory damage to the US’ regional bases and allies (first of all Israel) if it’s attacked over its refusal to agree to a Russian-mediated lopsided deal, it cannot inflict such damage to the US’ nuclear triad and would thus likely…

Will Hoarders Spark Run On Imported Goods? These Are The Most-Exposed US Retailers

Ahead of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff rollout on Wednesday afternoon—particularly the 25% tariff on vehicles and auto parts imported into the U.S.—reports surfaced last week of consumers rushing to dealerships to purchase vehicles already on the lot, as those would be exempt from the new levies. We suspect that if consumers are willing to flock to auto dealerships, they’re probably just as willing to stock up on their favorite Chinese-made products before the next round of tariffs takes effect this weekend and next Wednesday.  

Tariffs on Chinese goods are set to increase by 34% next Wednesday, on top of the existing 20%, bringing the effective rate to 54%. This will significantly impact companies heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing (and other Asian countries), forcing them to absorb the cost or pass it on to consumers—setting the stage for sticker shock.

Goldman analysts Brooke Roach, Kate McShane, and others earlier today provided clients with a breakdown of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs: 

On April 2nd, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. This includes a 10% tariff increase on all countries (excluding Mexico and Canada) and a higher rate of increase on select countries with trade deficits, set to take effect on April 5th and April 9th, respectively.

We believe the most material impact to our retail coverage from the announcement is the increase in tariffs on key sourcing partners for retail such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Cambodia.

China: Tariffs on China move to 54% (a 34% increase vs. the 20% tariff already in effect).

Tariffs broadened to key sourcing partners: Tariffs on other key sourcing partners for U.S. retail are set to be implemented, including Vietnam (46%), Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (37%), Italy (20%), India (27%), and Cambodia (49%). Imports from the European Union will also be subject to a 20% tariff.

Canada and Mexico: The announcement maintains tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Exemptions under USMCA will remain, which exempt compliant products from the 25% tariff rate on both countries. Should current orders be terminated, USMCA compliant products would receive preferential treatment while non-USMCA compliant goods would be tariffed at a 12% rate.

Material increase to softlines tariff rate overall: On our calculations, the announcement implies a ~38% weighted average tariff rate for total apparel and footwear imports to the U.S.

Given the tariff breakdown and timeline, Roach and McShane provided clients with a “China Tariff-O-Meter,” highlighting companies in their retail coverage whose supply chains are heavily exposed to China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Cambodia.

From their Softlines coverage, companies such as Warby Parker, Torrid Holdings, Groupe Dynamite, Nike, Yeti Coolers, and SharkNinja have high exposure to China and other Asian countries targeted by Trump’s upcoming round of tariffs. In other words, the products from these companies entering U.S. ports in the coming days will be subjected to sizeable tariffs.

In their Hardline coverage, companies such as Floor & Decor, Lowe’s, RH, Williams-Sonoma, Target, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, and Five Below have elevated or high supply chain exposure to China or other Asian countries. 

Take note of the Softline and Hardline retailers…

Beijing Slams Trump’s “Unilateral Bullying” Tariffs, Signals Retaliatory Action

President Trump’s late afternoon announcement on Wednesday—”Liberation Day”—unveiled a far more aggressive tariff policy than top Wall Street analysts had anticipated, prompting panic dumping in global equities and futures markets overnight.

Of particular concern is Trump’s stance toward China. The total effective tariff rate on Chinese imports surged to 54%, a dramatic increase of 34% from the previously imposed 20% in additional levies tied to fentanyl and earlier duties.

Trump’s Liberation Day has drawn swift condemnation from Beijing, which has described the escalating tariff war as “unilateral bullying.” 

Nikkei Asia quoted China’s Ministry of Commerce, warning that it “firmly opposes” Trump’s tariffs and “will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests.”

The Commerce Ministry noted that the US “ignored” the benefits of a global trading system, adding, “The so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs,’ which are based on subjective and unilateral assessments by the United States, are not in line with the rules of international trade, seriously jeopardize the legitimate rights and interests of the parties concerned, and are typical of unilateral bullying.” 

The ministry did not discuss specifics on the countermeasures. A ministry spokesperson told reporters that Beijing hopes to “resolve various issues through equal consultation.” 

In other words, it’s just a matter of time before Beijing mounts a countermeasure against the US, whether that’s targeted tariffs, export controls, or other measures (such as targeting US Big Tech). Or as we’ve recently seen: Beijing Derailing Panama Port Deal.

Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, sang the same tune: China “firmly opposes” Trump’s trade war escalation, which “seriously undermines” the rules-based global trading system. He urged Washington to resolve trade differences through talks. 

However, President Trump tried that with the Chinese Communist Party in his first term with the so-called “Phase One” agreement. Beijing committed to purchasing $200 billion of additional US exports. Yet, the phase one deal with the CCP was derailed by Covid disruptions. 

The Trump administration’s goal with reciprocal tariffs against literally the entire world, including some cases of near triple-digit reciprocal tariffs that will lead to a historic emerging markets shock, is to reverse a half-century or more of de-industrialization policies in the US that have hollowed out the nation’s core and produced a national security threat as the world fractures into a bipolar state.

pic.twitter.com/fSHTQWcauf
— Crypto_Maximaliste (@Crypto__Maxi) April 2, 2025
In financial markets, the People’s Bank of China set the daily reference rate for the yuan at 7.1889 per dollar, weakening the currency. This allows the yuan to depreciate and support export competitiveness. A move like this will only draw accusations of currency manipulation from Trump.

“We maintain our view that the PBOC will not allow a sharp [yuan] depreciation given capital outflow risks and the government’s objective to restore confidence in the Chinese economy,” HK Mizuho Securities analyst Ken Cheung wrote in a note earlier.

Goldman analysts Andrew Tilton and others told clients:

On April 2, President Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs on trading partners with exclusion of products that are subject to sectoral tariffs, resulting in what we estimate to be an increase of 26pp in the average effective US…

China Ends Military Drills With ‘Simulated Attacks’ On Taiwan Ports, Energy Sites

China’s military on Wednesday announced the completion of major war drills aimed at Taiwan, and which included a ‘live fire’ portion – as well as the patrols of some 20 naval ships off Taiwan’s coast.

The PLA’s Eastern Theater Command revealed that the second day involved simulated strikes on key ports and energy sites of the self-ruled island and US ally. A PLA spokesman had described drills which “test the troops’ capabilities” in areas such as “blockade and control, and precision strikes on key targets.”

The Chinese military further said it conducted “long-range live-fire drills”. China’s Shandong aircraft carrier was also spotted in regional waters testing its ability to “blockade” Taiwan, as part of the exercises dubbed “Strait Thunder-2025A”.

Beijing’s foreign ministry meanwhile on Wednesday declared the “punishment will not stop” if Taiwan leaders don’t halt their ‘separatist’ rhetoric.

Additional to the naval assets at sea, some 50 jets were involved in the drills, the biggest since early last year – to which Taiwan’s military responded by dispatching its own aircraft and ships, and land-based missile systems on coastal areas.

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense listed out the following Chinese military weaponry which was moved near Taiwan by early afternoon on the first day of the exercise: 71 sorties by military aircraft and drones, 21 navy ships ranged around the island, and the aforementioned Shandong carrier which was spotted about 220 nautical miles east of Taiwan

The Eastern Theatre Command simultaneous to all of this had issued a brief video calling Lai a “parasite” in English, also depicting him as a green bug dangled by chopsticks over a burning Taiwan.

Taiwan officials blasted the drills as “reckless” and “irresponsible”. Taiwan’s military subsequently elevated its readiness level to ensure China does not “turn drills into combat” and “launch a sudden attack on us.”
Via Marine Insight

China’s Foreign Ministry had at the week’s start called out Washington’s role in the Taiwan tensions, slamming US’ use of “China threat” rhetoric which is bent on provoking confrontation, but which will end in regional countries being used as “cannon fodder” for US hegemony – according to a statement.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 23:00…

Government Funding For mRNA Technology Is Being Scrutinized And, In Some Cases, Sidelined

It looks as though government funding for mRNA technology is on a short leash…

Take, for example, a promising mRNA vaccine for pancreatic cancer, developed by Memorial Sloan Kettering, that showed encouraging early results: in some patients, immune responses lasted up to four years and appeared to reduce recurrence.

It is being overshadowed by new concerns about federal support for mRNA research, according to a new op-ed by science commentator Anjana Ahuja in the Financial Times. 

According to Nature, NIH officials are informally advising scientists to remove references to mRNA from grant applications, and a spreadsheet tracking 130 related projects has raised fears of funding cuts.

NIH claims it’s simply reviewing what mRNA work it currently funds, but the lack of clarity has sparked unease—especially given the agency’s massive $47 billion research budget.

Drew Weissman, the Nobel-winning scientist behind mRNA vaccine breakthroughs, warned that cutting NIH support for mRNA research would stall medical progress and harm U.S. science. Even the threat of funding cuts creates fear and instability, especially for young researchers who may now look abroad for more secure opportunities.

To which we reply: if mRNA vaccines have a safe solution, the free market will eventually allow them to flourish…

But the Financial Times piece says that concerns have intensified with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leading Health and Human Services, and reports that mRNA projects are being scrutinized or sidelined politically. 

One early study using personalized mRNA cancer vaccines is already yielding hopeful results and has launched a broader global trial, according to the op-ed.

Scientists argue that pulling support now could derail life-saving innovation. As history shows, today’s medical breakthroughs rest on decades of consistent public research investment — a pipeline that can’t survive in a climate of political interference.

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 18:00…