Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities
000
FONT15 KNHC 122045
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC MON AUG 12 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 29(55)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PONCE PR 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 13(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 17(17) 8(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 49(53) 4(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 7( 7) 53(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 13(13) 44(57) 3(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
SAINT CROIX 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 28(29) 13(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
SABA 34 1 44(45) 14(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
SABA 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 51(52) 8(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 57(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BARBUDA 34 3 33(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
ANTIGUA 34 X 32(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
GUADELOUPE 34 7 41(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
GUADELOUPE 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AVES 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
DOMINICA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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