Hurricane Ernesto Public Advisory
000
WTNT35 KNHC 141749
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Wed Aug 14 2024
- FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO ONGOING HEAVY RAINS
SUMMARY OF 2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 21.1 NORTH 68.0 WEST
ABOUT 225 MILES, 365 KILOMETERS NORTHWEST, OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 805 MILES, 1295 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHWEST, OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 MILES PER HOUR, 120 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTHWEST, OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MILES PER HOUR, 26 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MILLIBAR, 29.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
- The Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been discontinued.
- The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
- Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto.
- A hurricane watch may be required for the island later today.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 68.0 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 Miles Per Hour, (26 Kilometers Per Hour).
- A turn toward the north northwest and north is expected later today and tonight, with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed continuing through Saturday.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach Bermuda Friday and Saturday.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 75 Miles Per Hour, (120 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. - Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 Kilometers) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 Kilometers).
- The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent dropsonde data is 989 mb (29.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
RAINFALL:
- Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
- Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
- Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday.
- For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND:
- Gusty winds will continue across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through rest of today.
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
- These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday.
- Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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