Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
000
WTNT35 KNHC 142350
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Wed Aug 14 2024
- AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERNESTO IS STRENGTHENING
- HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA
SUMMARY OF 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 22.4 NORTH 68.7 WEST
ABOUT 180 MILES, 290 KILOMETERS East Northeast OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 720 MILES, 1160 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHWEST, OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 MILES PER HOUR, 130 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTHWEST, OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MILES PER HOUR, 26 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MILLIBAR, 28.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
- Bermuda
- A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
- A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
- For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 8:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (00:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 68.7 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 Miles Per Hour, (26 Kilometers Per Hour).
- A turn toward the north northwest and north is expected tonight and on Thursday.
- A northward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected Friday and Saturday.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near Bermuda on Saturday.
- Data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 Miles Per Hour, (130 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday.
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).
- The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches) based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
WIND:
- Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.
RAINFALL:
- Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches.
- This rainfall may result in considerable life threatening flash flooding.
- Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
- Total rainfall amounts from Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
- For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.
- These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday.
- Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 11:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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