000
WTNT35 KNHC 161744
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, National Hurricane Center Miami FLORIDA AL052024
2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME Fri Aug 16 2024
- ERNESTO CLOSING IN ON BERMUDA
- STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE THREATENING
- FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
SUMMARY OF 2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME 18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME INFORMATION
LOCATION 30.0 NORTH 66.1 WEST
ABOUT 180 MILES, 285 KILOMETERS SOUTH SOUTHWEST, OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 MILES PER HOUR, 155 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
PRESENT MOVEMENT NORTH NORTHEAST, OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MILES PER HOUR, 22 KILOMETERS PER HOUR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MILLIBAR, 28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
- Bermuda
- A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
- Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
- For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
- At 2:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (18:00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 66.1 West.
- Ernesto is moving toward the north northeast near 14 Miles Per Hour, (22 Kilometers Per Hour).
- This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late this weekend into early next week.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning.
- Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 Miles Per Hour, (155 Kilometers Per Hour) with higher gusts.
- Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re intensification is possible by early next week.
- Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone.
- Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 Kilometers) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 Kilometers).
- Saildrone SD 1068 located about 55 miles (90 Kilometers) north northeast of Ernesto’s center, recently reported a sustained wind of 58 Miles Per Hour, (94 Kilometers Per Hour), with a gust up to 74 Miles Per Hour, (119 Kilometers Per Hour).
- The minimum central pressure based on data from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.61 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
WIND:
- Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon.
STORM SURGE:
- A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
- Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL:
- Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches.
- This rainfall will likely result in considerable life threatening flash flooding, especially in low lying areas on the island.
SURF:
- Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
- Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday.
- These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
- Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
- Next complete advisory at 5:00 P.M. ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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