Hurricane Gilma Forecast Discussion
751 WTPZ42 KNHC 231434 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 The cloud pattern associated with Gilma has lost some organization since the last advisory, with the eye become less distinct and the central dense overcast becoming more ragged. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have trended downward during the past 6 h, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased to 100 kt. The westward jog mentioned in the previous advisory continues, with the initial motion now 275/7 kt. A deep-layer trough north of Gilma near the west coast of the United States is expected to lift out over the next couple of days, which will allow a high pressure ridge to gradually build westward over the eastern North Pacific. As a result, Gilma should move generally west-northwestward to westward at a faster forward speed during the next several days. Due to the current westward jog, the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the south and west since the previous advisory. Based on this guidance, the new track forecast, which lies close to the consensus models, will also shift a bit to the south. Gilma is gradually moving toward cooler water, with the center expected to cross the 26C isotherm in about 36 h. The hurricane is also moving into a drier and more stable air mass. This combination should lead to gradual weakening for the next 60 h or so. Beyond that time, increasing shear and sea surface temperatures near 25C should cause a faster weakening rate, and Gilma is now expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 120 h. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance, but is nudged downward a little from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.4N 126.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 17.6N 128.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 18.0N 129.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 18.3N 131.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 18.6N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 18.9N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.2N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 19.9N 141.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.6N 147.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Stay Updated with news.freeptomaineradio.com’s Daily Newsletter
Stay informed! Subscribe to our daily newsletter to receive updates on our latest blog posts directly in your inbox. Don’t let important information get buried by big tech.
Current subscribers:
