The Quiet Before The Storms In Ukraine, Gaza, And Taiwan?
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
There are three current hot or cold wars: on the Ukrainian border, in the regions surrounding Israel, and in the strategic space between Taiwan and mainland China.
All three conflicts could not only expand within their respective theaters but also escalate to draw in the United States.
And all three involve nuclear powers.
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Various Russian megaphones routinely threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Some boast about sending strategic nuclear bombs or missiles against its Western suppliers, especially as the costs of Russian aggression mount and the humiliation of Putin escalates.
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Nuclear Israel and near-nuclear Iran have both exchanged attacks on their respective homelands—and promise to do so again.
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China likewise on occasion existentially threatens Taiwan. Its freelancing generals and spokesmen periodically warn Japan and the U.S. of dire nuclear consequences should they intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.
In all these theaters, there superficially appears to be stasis and deadlock:
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Israel is said to be bogged down in Gaza as it seeks to neutralize 400 miles of subterranean command-and-control installations and munitions, find and rescue surviving Israeli hostages, and take out the Hamas leaders. And no one believes that the degradation of Hamas will mark the end of the war, given the agendas of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran, to attack periodically and chronically the Jewish state.
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Combined Russian and Ukrainian dead, wounded, and missing may be nearing one million. Experts argue about whether the current apparently successful Ukrainian counteroffensive towards Kursk inside Russia was merely a demonstration to gain diplomatic concessions. Or was it designed to take and hold ground inside the Russian homeland? Or intended to draw off Russian offensives to the southeast? Some call it brilliantly conceived but dangerous—given the risk of its ending like the ill-fated Battle of the Bulge German offensive of 1945 that achieved startling initial success but was soon ground down by superior numbers and ultimately weakened the overall German defense.
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China has stepped up its harassment of Philippine forces and its rhetoric. It has upped its intrusions into Taiwanese airspace and waters while cementing strategic partnerships with Russia and Iran, even as it courts India and Turkey. Yet for now, China is not especially eager to attack Taiwan, given that it feels it is steadily gaining momentum in psychologically, strategically, and politically strangling the Taiwanese.
Confusion and strategic pauses for the brief moment mark all these conflicts. In part, the hiatuses arose because of uncertainty surrounding the murky intentions and role of the United States. The latter is bogged down in an unpredictable if not bizarre election year, compounded by ambiguity about who is actually in control of the country and for how long, and who will be president after January 2025.
The 2024 race saw the first-ever presidential debate held well before the formal nomination of candidates, the sudden forced removal of President Biden from his reelection candidacy, the abrupt coronation of a once-deemed-unimpressive Kamala Harris as his replacement, the inability or unwillingness of Harris to meet the media or give interviews, the continued apparent debility of Biden as he enters the last six months of his presidential tenure, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and the near-even presidential polls.
While Russian and Ukrainian forces advance and retreat along their shared border, most experts privately feel that there is quiet consensus about an eventual armistice to end the Somme-like bloodbath. This will involve recognition of Russia’s control over the Donbas and Crimea that Putin attacked and de facto absorbed in 2014; a demilitarized border; and an autonomous and heavily armed but non-NATO Ukraine.
Currently, Ukraine is running out of manpower, given its losses, draft problems, and a quarter of the population having fled the country. Russia has suffered twice as many casualties as Ukraine and faced blows to its military prestige. It has so far found no tactical or strategic pathway to absorb Ukraine as it intended with its February 2022 surprise attack on Kyiv.
Yet the apparent ossification on the border may be illusory. If either side cracks and its enemy suddenly makes dramatic advances, a dangerous escalation could ensue, and rapidly so. Russia will likely not allow Ukraine to occupy for any extended period any Russian territory and will up its threats toward what it sees as an exhausted Ukraine and a tired NATO partnership.
And NATO and the United States will likely never allow Russia to annex Ukraine in toto beyond the Donbas and Crimea. The longer the ensuing stagnation, the more likely one side will seek a dramatic breakthrough, and so the more likely becomes a greater war with third-party intervention and deadlier weapons.
Turning to the second conflict, we find that Iran is now in a dangerous position of its own making. It has loudly promised Israel and boasted to the Muslim world that it will attack the Jewish homeland for a second time within a year. Hezbollah threatens to join in, perhaps along with anemic contributions from Hamas and the Houthis.
Yet does Iran really believe that even a missile and drone launch twice the size of its last huge but failed barrage—say 640 projectiles—will seriously injure Israel? Even with the confusion and chaos in the U.S., is Tehran really convinced that the U.S. and some of its European and Arab allies will not again intervene to protect their own assets or their own or international airspace, by knocking down Iranian aerial attacks?
In short, Iran’s rhetoric and the provocations of its satellites have put it in a lose/lose situation: to save face the theocracy feels it must honor its threats and attack Israel, but it also knows it may not be able to do much damage, while earning a second retaliatory response potentially far more grievous and far more warranted in international eyes than Israel’s prior successful but largely demonstrative missile launch.
Ditto Hezbollah. It hopes that its some 150,000 rockets and drones will do real damage in concert with an Iranian attack but accepts that it will certainly earn in response a devastation of Shiite Beirut and its environs far in excess of what it suffered in 2006. The damage from that conflict took a generation to repair, with hundreds of miles of roads, thousands of homes, and billions of dollars in infrastructure destroyed.
So, like the Ukrainian conflict, the Middle East war is only temporarily on pause. And it will continue until Iran or Israel seeks to break the stalemate in a second phase that would make the Gaza campaign seem minor in comparison and be far more likely to draw in outside powers—especially if the United States appears feeble and unable to protect its traditional ally Israel.
As for the third, still-bloodless conflict: China envisions strategy globally rather than regionally. It helps to fuel the stalemate in Ukraine, on the grounds that its traditional rival turned temporary friend Russia is hurting the West by consuming its money, weapons, and attention—while conveniently hurting itself in the process.
China is openly aiding Iran, not because it is especially friendly to radical Islam (cf. its treatment of the Uyghurs) or innately hostile to the Jewish state. Instead, it simply welcomes these tensions that cause radical domestic upheaval and political dissension inside America, while drawing U.S. naval and air assets far away from the South China Sea.
China’s operating principle seems to be to watch and wait for the outcome of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, given that both tax Western powers. It is eager and patient to see how the conflicts end, especially whether Russia achieves by force its apparent goals, and whether Iran and its proxies permanently redefine the future of the Middle East. These outcomes will serve to indicate the level of potential Western resistance to or intentional condemnation of its own planned annexation of Taiwan.
In conclusion, we are entering a very dangerous five-month period.
Joe Biden has been judged by the American people in the polls as too enfeebled to be reelected and declared by his own party to be too cognitively challenged to remain its nominee. That may suggest to foreign risk-takers that the U.S. president is deemed unfit by Americans themselves and thus conclude there might be a vacuum of rapid-response leadership at the White House.
The unspoken corollary is that the American people and both their political parties are certain that, while Biden is incapable of continuing as a normally engaged president through the last half-year of his tenure, he will nevertheless inevitably do so. And that conclusion is likely shared by enemies abroad, who may surmise that if there ever was a time to alter the current geostrategic map or the relative balance of power, that rare occasion is now on the horizon.
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Originally Posted at; https://www.zerohedge.com//
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WSJ Editorial Board Rips Harris over Afghanistan Withdrawal
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) editorial board let loose on Vice President Kamala Harris for her role in President Joe Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal in an op-ed on Monday.
Monday marked the third anniversary of the terrorist bombing in Afghanistan that killed 13 Americans as the United States exited from the country during Biden’s botched rollout. While Kamala Harris honored their sacrifice in a statement, she said she holds no regrets over what happened during what led up to the bombing.
“President Biden made the courageous and right decision to end America’s longest war,” she said.
The WSJ editorial board noted that Biden’s withdrawal was tantamount to an indefensible failure:
It’s good to know what she thinks, but it doesn’t reflect well on her judgment as a potential Commander in Chief. The withdrawal decision was arguably the worst of Mr. Biden’s Presidency, as he ignored the advice of nearly all of his advisers that a date-certain, total retreat would likely result in the collapse of the Afghan government and a Taliban takeover. Keeping a few thousand troops in support of the Afghan forces could have prevented the catastrophe and its consequences.
The op-ed cited statements made by Marine Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, who was in charge of Central Command at the time, during an appearance on the School of War podcast.
“What do you think the consequences are broadly of the collapse and us not being there?” the host asked.
“Well, I think on several levels, I think [Vladimir] Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was directly driven by this. I think the Chinese were emboldened as a result of it. I think that more operationally, I think ISIS-K flourishes now in Afghanistan. The attack in Moscow just a few months ago is only a sign of things to come,” said McKenzie.
“Our ability to actually look into Afghanistan, understand what goes on in Afghanistan, is such a small percentage of what it used to be, that it is effectively zero. So we predicted these things will happen, these things are happening. Our ability to, again, apply leverage here is quite limited,”McKenzie added.
The WSJ editorial board concluded the op-ed by noting that Biden and Harris were warned about the consequences.
“The needless deaths of those 13 Americans were the worst result, but the withdrawal also marked the end of Mr. Biden’s ability to deter adversaries around the world,” it wrote. “That Ms. Harris now embraces this failure suggests more of the same ahead if she wins in November.”
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Japan says Chinese aircraft incursion ‘serious violation’
Japan slammed on Tuesday what it called the first confirmed incursion by a Chinese military aircraft into its airspace as a “serious violation” of its sovereignty, saying it was part of a pattern by Beijing.
“The violation of our airspace by Chinese military aircraft is not only a serious violation of our sovereignty but also a threat to our security and is totally unacceptable,” chief government spokesman Yoshimasa Hayashi said a day after the incident over the East China Sea.
Japan said it scrambled fighter jets after the two-minute incursion from 11:29 am (0229 GMT) on Monday by the Y-9 surveillance aircraft off the Danjo Islands in Nagasaki Prefecture.
“We understand that this is the first confirmed and announced airspace incursion by a Chinese military aircraft since we started the anti-airspace incursion measures,” Hayashi told reporters.
“We refrain from giving a definite answer as to the intended purpose of the Chinese aircraft’s action. However, China’s recent military activities near Japan have a tendency to expand and become increasingly active,” he said.
“The government will continue to pay close attention to China’s military activities and will take all possible measures to ensure vigilant surveillance and airspace violation measures.”
Deputy foreign minister Masataka Okano summoned China’s acting ambassador late Monday to lodge a “firm protest” and call for measures to prevent a recurrence, the foreign ministry said.
The Chinese diplomat said in response that the matter would be reported to Beijing, according to the ministry. Nearly 24 hours after the incident, there was no official comment from Beijing.
China’s growing economic and military clout in the Asia-Pacific region and its assertiveness in territorial disputes — in particular Taiwan — has alarmed the United States and its allies.
Japan, staunchly pacifist for decades, has ramped up defence spending with US encouragement, moving to acquire “counter-strike” capabilities and easing rules on arms exports.
Tokyo is also providing funding and equipment such as patrol vessels to countries across the region and agreed in July on a deal with the Philippines allowing troop deployments on each other’s soil.
Japan and South Korea have also moved to bury the historical hatchet. Tokyo is also part of the Quad alliance with the United States, Australia and India, a grouping seen as a bulwark against Beijing.
Yee Kuang Heng, a professor at the University of Tokyo, said the Y-9 in Monday’s incident “was likely probing Japan’s air defence network, collecting electronic intel such as Japan’s radar signals and coverage”.
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Hurricane Gilma Forecast Discussion
358 WTPZ42 KNHC 270247 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Gilma remains a resilient hurricane over the far western portion of the Eastern Pacific. Its eye is distinct and surrounded by a healthy ring of cold -60 to -70C cloud tops. Both a GMI and AMSR2 microwave pass received after the prior advisory also highlight Gilma's well-organized structure, primarily in the form of a single closed eyewall. However, the eyewall does appear to be weaker on its southern side, which might be a harbinger of increasing westerly vertical wind shear finally beginning to impact the inner-core structure. In the meantime, subjective and objective intensity estimates are largely unchanged from earlier this afternoon, and the initial intensity is held at 95 kt for this advisory. Gilma continues on a just north of due westward track, though a little faster than earlier at 280/10 kt. A prominent subtropical ridge to its north should continue to steer the hurricane generally westward to west-northwestward with a gradual increase in forward motion over the next several days. On this track, Gilma should enter the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow morning. The deep-layer ridging does weaken towards the end of the forecast period, but Gilma will also likely become more vertically shallow at that time. The track guidance this cycle once again is a bit faster than the prior one, and the NHC track forecast is also a little faster than the previous one, blending the consensus aids TCVE and HCCA with the prior track forecast. While Gilma has defied the odds and remained stronger than forecasted over the past couple of days, there is evidence that westerly vertical wind shear is beginning to impinge on the hurricane. SHIPS guidance shows this shear gradually increasing as Gilma also traverses a very dry mid-level environment and only marginal 25-26 C sea-surface temperatures. Assuming this dry air is ultimately entrained into its inner core, weakening should begin soon. After 48-60 h, the EC-SHIPS shows the shear increasing to more than 30 kt, which will likely continue this weakening trend even as Gilma begins to move over warmer waters again. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the prior advisory, just a little on the high side of the intensity consensus early on. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the system will cease to produce organized convection after 72 h, with remnant low status forecast after that time, and final dissipation by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.5N 138.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.6N 140.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.8N 142.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.1N 144.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 19.6N 146.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 20.1N 148.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.5N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 21.7N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Hone Forecast Discussion
000 WTPA41 PHFO 270246 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 19 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Hone's low-level circulation center (LLCC) remained exposed in visible satellite imagery for most of the day, but the recent development of strong thunderstorms in the northern semicircle have since obscured it. The initial intensity estimate for this advisory is partially based on a 2013Z ASCAT pass, which also helped to refine the radii analysis. A subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of 3.0/45 kt from PHFO, and UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 48 kt support assigning 50 kt for the initial intensity, especially given the recent increase in convective vigor. The initial motion estimate is 285/11kt. A surface high currently centered to the north of Hone will be the primary steering mechanism driving the cyclone generally west-northwestward the next day or two, with some increase in latitude and slowing in forward speed expected after midweek as the high shifts eastward. Track guidance remains well-clustered, and takes Hone into a environment characterized by increasingly strong westerly winds aloft. Despite the strong winds aloft, systems like Hone are typically able to produce strong winds and deep convection on their north side for a couple of days as they gradually spin down from hurricane to post-tropical cyclone. The latest intensity guidance consensus IVCN (and official forecast) support this notion, as well as simulated satellite imagery based on ECMWF guidance. It is expected that Hone will produce sporadic bouts of convection to the north and east of the center as it moves west-northwest, while strong (30-40 kt) westerly vertical wind shear prevents the convection from persisting over the center. Hone is forecast to remain at tropical storm strength through the next 48-60 hours, then become a post-tropical low on Thursday, and dissipate on Friday. If future convective elements are unable to develop or move over the center of the cyclone, Hone may become post-tropical sooner than indicated here. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 19.6N 162.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.8N 164.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 20.1N 167.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 20.5N 169.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.9N 171.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 21.5N 173.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/0000Z 22.2N 174.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Advisory
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270245 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 126.7W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 126.7W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.2N 128.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 130.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 132.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 134.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.9N 137.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.8N 139.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 145.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 126.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Originally Posted at:
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Tropical Storm Hector Public Advisory
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270245 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...HECTOR HOLDING STEADY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 126.7W ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 126.7 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so followed by gradual weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
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Hurricane Gilma Public Advisory
899 WTPZ32 KNHC 270243 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...GILMA STILL A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 138.3W ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 138.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin soon, with a faster rate of weakening expected later this week. Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Originally Posted at:
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Hurricane Gilma Forecast Advisory
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 270242 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 138.3W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 138.3W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 137.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 140.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 142.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.1N 144.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 146.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 148.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.5N 151.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.7N 155.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 138.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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Tropical Storm Hone Public Advisory
000 WTPA31 PHFO 270238 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Advisory Number 19 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...HONE CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI AND MOVING AWAY FROM HAWAII TOWARD OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 162.9W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hone was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 162.9 West. Hone is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Hone will continue moving away from the main Hawaiian Islands, and pass well north of Johnston Island Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Only gradual weakening is expected the next couple of days. Hone is expected to become a post-tropical low on Thursday, then dissipate on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Birchard
Originally Posted at:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At The NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
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